Critical Effects of Precipitation on Future Colorado River Flow

IF 4.8 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Journal of Climate Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-23-0617.1
Martin P. Hoerling, Jon K. Eischeid, Henry F. Diaz, Balaji Rajagopolan, Eric Kuhn
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Abstract

Abstract Of concern to Colorado River management, as operating guidelines post-2026 are being considered, is whether water resource recovery from low flows during 2000–2020 is possible. Here we analyze new simulations from the sixth generation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to determine plausible climate impacts on Colorado River flows for 2026–2050 when revised guidelines would operate. We constrain projected flows for Lee Ferry, the gauge through which 85% of the river flow passes, using its estimated sensitivity to meteorological variability together with CMIP6 projected precipitation and temperature changes. The critical importance of precipitation, especially its natural variability, is emphasized. Model projections indicate increased precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin due to climate change, which alone increases river flows 5%–7% (relative to a 2000–2020 climatology). Depending on the river’s temperature sensitivity, this wet signal compensates some, if not all, of the depleting effects from basin warming. Considerable internal decadal precipitation variability (~5% of the climatological mean) is demonstrated, driving a greater range of plausible Colorado River flow changes for 2026–2050 than previously surmised from treatment of temperature impacts alone: the overall precipitation-induced Lee Ferry flow changes span −25% to +40% contrasting with a −30% to −5% range from expected warming effects only. Consequently, extreme low and high flows are more likely. Lee Ferry flow projections, conditioned on initial drought states akin to 2000–2020, reveal substantial recovery odds for water resources, albeit with elevated risks of even further flow declines than in recent decades.
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降水量对未来科罗拉多河流量的关键影响
摘要 在考虑 2026 年后的运行准则时,科罗拉多河管理部门关心的问题是,是否有可能从 2000-2020 年期间的低流量中恢复水资源。在此,我们分析了第六代耦合模式相互比较项目(CMIP6)的新模拟结果,以确定 2026-2050 年修订指南运行时气候对科罗拉多河流量的合理影响。李渡口是科罗拉多河 85% 的流量经过的水尺,我们利用该水尺对气象变化的估计敏感度以及 CMIP6 预测的降水和温度变化,对李渡口的预测流量进行了限制。降水,尤其是降水的自然变化至关重要。模型预测表明,气候变化会导致科罗拉多河上游流域降水量增加,仅此一项就会使河流流量增加 5%-7%(相对于 2000-2020 年的气候)。根据河流对温度的敏感性,这一湿润信号即使不能完全补偿流域变暖带来的部分耗竭效应,也能补偿部分耗竭效应。大量的十年期内部降水变化(约为气候学平均值的 5%)得到了证实,这使得 2026-2050 年科罗拉多河的合理流量变化范围大于之前仅从温度影响角度推测的范围:降水引起的里费里流量变化的总体范围为 -25% 到 +40%,而仅从预期的气候变暖影响角度推测的范围为 -30% 到 -5%。因此,出现极端低流量和高流量的可能性更大。以类似 2000-2020 年的初始干旱状态为条件进行的李渡口流量预测显示,尽管流量进一步下降的风险比最近几十年更高,但水资源仍有很大的恢复机会。
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来源期刊
Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
14.30%
发文量
490
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Climate (JCLI) (ISSN: 0894-8755; eISSN: 1520-0442) publishes research that advances basic understanding of the dynamics and physics of the climate system on large spatial scales, including variability of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere; past, present, and projected future changes in the climate system; and climate simulation and prediction.
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