A Monte Carlo approach for capacity and delay analyses of multiple interacting airports in Istanbul metroplex

Abstract

The Istanbul metroplex airspace, home to Atatürk (LTBA), Sabiha Gökçen (LTFJ), and Istanbul (LTFM) international airports, is a critical hub for international travel, trade and commerce between Europe and Asia. The high air traffic volume and the proximity of multiple airports make air traffic management (ATM) a significant challenge. To better manage this complex air traffic, it is necessary to conduct detailed analyses of the capacities of these airports and surrounding airspace. In this study, Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the ultimate and practical capacities of the airport and surrounding airspace and compare them to identify any differences or limitations. The traffic mix, runway occupancy time and traffic distribution at airspace entry points are randomised variables that directly impact airport and airspace capacities and delays. The study aims to determine the current capacities of the runways and routes in the metroplex airspace and project the future capacities with the addition of new facilities. The results demonstrated that the actual bottleneck could be experienced in airspace, rather than runways, which was the focus of the previous literature. Thus, this study will provide valuable insights for stakeholders in the aviation industry to effectively manage air traffic in the metroplex airspace and meet the growing demand.