Carbon dioxide fertilization, carbon neutrality, and food security

IF 5.2 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS 中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102177
Ziheng Liu , Qinan Lu
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Abstract

Understanding how carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilizes crop yields is crucial for assessing potential threats to food security in a changing climate, characterized by evolving atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Utilizing an instrumental variable based on the long-distance transmission of CO2 from upwind counties, we investigate the causal effects of CO2 on crop yields. Our findings provide evidence that a one-standard-deviation increase in CO2 leads to significant increases in rice, wheat, and corn yields, with effect sizes of 0.3066, 0.7313, and 0.1398 standard deviations, respectively. Moreover, our research provides evidence indicating that the carbon fertilization effects shape the agricultural landscape in China by influencing the acreage shifts across crops. Projecting future crop productions based on a scenario of carbon neutrality aligned with the Paris Agreement, we anticipate that total crop production in China will reach its peak in 2041, followed by a gradual decline. Temperatures will largely offset the predicted changes in crop output brought on by CO2, and the predicted CO2-induced crop production will change accordingly when taking acreage shifts into account.

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二氧化碳施肥、碳中和与粮食安全
在大气二氧化碳浓度不断变化的气候条件下,了解二氧化碳(CO2)如何对作物产量产生肥效对于评估粮食安全的潜在威胁至关重要。利用基于二氧化碳从上风县远距离传播的工具变量,我们研究了二氧化碳对作物产量的因果效应。我们的研究结果证明,二氧化碳每增加一个标准差,水稻、小麦和玉米产量就会显著增加,效应大小分别为 0.3066、0.7313 和 0.1398 个标准差。此外,我们的研究还提供了证据,表明碳肥效应通过影响不同作物的种植面积变化,塑造了中国的农业格局。根据与《巴黎协定》一致的碳中和情景预测未来作物产量,我们预计中国作物总产量将在 2041 年达到峰值,随后逐渐下降。气温将在很大程度上抵消二氧化碳对农作物产量的预测影响,考虑到种植面积的变化,由二氧化碳引起的农作物产量预测也将发生相应变化。
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来源期刊
中国经济评论
中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
10.60
自引率
4.40%
发文量
380
期刊介绍: The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.
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