{"title":"Carbon dioxide fertilization, carbon neutrality, and food security","authors":"Ziheng Liu , Qinan Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102177","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding how carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) fertilizes crop yields is crucial for assessing potential threats to food security in a changing climate, characterized by evolving atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations. Utilizing an instrumental variable based on the long-distance transmission of CO<sub>2</sub> from upwind counties, we investigate the causal effects of CO<sub>2</sub> on crop yields. Our findings provide evidence that a one-standard-deviation increase in CO<sub>2</sub> leads to significant increases in rice, wheat, and corn yields, with effect sizes of 0.3066, 0.7313, and 0.1398 standard deviations, respectively. Moreover, our research provides evidence indicating that the carbon fertilization effects shape the agricultural landscape in China by influencing the acreage shifts across crops. Projecting future crop productions based on a scenario of carbon neutrality aligned with the Paris Agreement, we anticipate that total crop production in China will reach its peak in 2041, followed by a gradual decline. Temperatures will largely offset the predicted changes in crop output brought on by CO<sub>2</sub>, and the predicted CO<sub>2</sub>-induced crop production will change accordingly when taking acreage shifts into account.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"中国经济评论","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X2400066X","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Understanding how carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilizes crop yields is crucial for assessing potential threats to food security in a changing climate, characterized by evolving atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Utilizing an instrumental variable based on the long-distance transmission of CO2 from upwind counties, we investigate the causal effects of CO2 on crop yields. Our findings provide evidence that a one-standard-deviation increase in CO2 leads to significant increases in rice, wheat, and corn yields, with effect sizes of 0.3066, 0.7313, and 0.1398 standard deviations, respectively. Moreover, our research provides evidence indicating that the carbon fertilization effects shape the agricultural landscape in China by influencing the acreage shifts across crops. Projecting future crop productions based on a scenario of carbon neutrality aligned with the Paris Agreement, we anticipate that total crop production in China will reach its peak in 2041, followed by a gradual decline. Temperatures will largely offset the predicted changes in crop output brought on by CO2, and the predicted CO2-induced crop production will change accordingly when taking acreage shifts into account.
期刊介绍:
The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.