The Gamma concept approach as a tool to predict fresh produce supporting or not the growth of L. monocytogenes

Abstract

Challenge tests are commonly employed to evaluate the growth behavior of L. monocytogenes in food matrices; they are known for being expensive and time-consuming. An alternative could be the use of predictive models to forecast microbial behavior under different conditions. In this study, the growth behavior of L. monocytogenes in different fresh produce was evaluated using a predictive model based on the Gamma concept considering pH, water activity (a_w), and temperature as input factors. An extensive literature search resulted in a total of 105 research articles selected to collect growth/no growth behavior data of L. monocytogenes. Up to 808 L. monocytogenes behavior values and physicochemical characteristics were extracted for different fruits and vegetables. The predictive performance of the model as a tool for identifying the produce commodities supporting the growth of L. monocytogenes was proved by comparing with the experimental data collected from the literature. The model provided satisfactory predictions on the behavior of L. monocytogenes in vegetables (>80% agreement with experimental observations). For leafy greens, a 90% agreement was achieved. In contrast, the performance of the Gamma model was less satisfactory for fruits, as it tends to overestimate the potential of acid commodities to inhibit the growth of L. monocytogenes.