Estimating rainfall-runoff parameters for ungauged catchments: a case study in Turkiye

Abstract

Determining water yield and flood discharges in catchments is a vital aspect of hydrology. This entails considering precipitation and runoff as key hydrological parameters. Constructing infrastructure like hydroelectric plants and regulators over streams necessitates continuous, accurate flow, and meteorological observations spanning at least 25 years. However, in developing nations, economic factors often impede such observations. This study proposes a method to estimate peak rainfall and flow values for ungauged basins with varying return periods by utilizing from gauged basins and spatial variables. Flood calculations were carried out for the ungauged Rabat River basin. In this study, regional flood frequency analysis was carried out using the flow values of the flow gauging stations neighboring the basin. In addition, maximum flow values were calculated using Moscus and the DSI synthetic method. Two- and three-parameter distributions were used to estimate 50-, 100-, 200- and 500-year flood return values at stations with observation periods ranging from 15 to 64 years. Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Probability Line Correlation coefficient (Chi-square) tests were applied to check the suitability of these distributions and the most appropriate distributions were found. This yielded an estimation for the flow values of the Rabat River, indicating the method's reliability for forecasting runoff-rainfall in the ungauged basin.