Bank Specific Factors, Macroeconomic Variables and Market value of Nepalese Commercial Banks

Ramesh Paudel
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Abstract

The present research has been carried out to identify the relationship and impact of bank specific factors, macroeconomic variables on the market value of Nepalese commercial banks. This research is based on descriptive cum causal research design with quantitative data from secondary sources. The study adopts panel regression to capture both cross sectional and longitudinal data characteristics and employs ordinary least square model with 120 observations of 20 commercial banks as entire population from the period of 2016/17 to 2021/22. The study reveals that banks with higher loan growth and size tend to maintain efficient market value, yet careful lending areas selection are crucial to mitigate no performing loan risk, which can decrease profitability and increase market risk. Higher non-interest income to non-interest expenses, operating revenue to operating expenses are major dimension to increase the market value. Book value per share and dividend payout ratio reflecting investor confidence in the bank’s net worth and consistence return. The banks might adopt the strategy of diversifying lending portfolio, introduce non-interest income generation program along with increases the size and operation of the activities. The bank could follow the policy of increasing cash and stock dividend through higher profit. The study focuses on selected bank specific and macroeconomic factors without considering fixed/random and structural model. Future studies aim to employ in identifying causal link between bank factors, service quality and market value with different panel data model.
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银行特有因素、宏观经济变量和尼泊尔商业银行的市场价值
本研究旨在确定银行特定因素、宏观经济变量对尼泊尔商业银行市场价值的关系和影响。本研究采用描述性暨因果关系研究设计,从二手资料中获取定量数据。研究采用面板回归法来捕捉横截面和纵向数据特征,并使用普通最小二乘法模型,以 20 家商业银行的 120 个观测值作为 2016/17 年至 2021/22 年期间的全部数据。研究表明,贷款增长率和规模较高的银行往往能保持有效的市场价值,但谨慎选择贷款领域对于降低无履约贷款风险至关重要,因为无履约贷款风险会降低盈利能力并增加市场风险。较高的非利息收入与非利息支出比率、营业收入与营业支出比率是提高市场价值的主要维度。每股账面价值和股息支付率反映了投资者对银行净资产和稳定回报的信心。银行可以采取贷款组合多样化战略,引入非利息创收计划,同时扩大活动规模和经营范围。银行可以采取通过提高利润来增加现金和股票分红的政策。本研究侧重于选定的银行特定因素和宏观经济因素,没有考虑固定/随机和结构模型。今后的研究将采用不同的面板数据模型来确定银行因素、服务质量和市场价值之间的因果联系。
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