A novel approach to runway overrun risk assessment using FRAM and flight data monitoring

C. Reiser, E. Villani, M. Machado Cardoso-Junior
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Abstract

Runway overruns (ROs) are the result of an aircraft rolling beyond the end of a runway, which is one of the accident’s types that most frequently occurs on aviation. The risk of an RO arises from the synergistic effect among its precursors, such as unstable approaches, long touchdowns and inadequate use of deceleration devices. To analyse this complex socio-technical system, the current work proposes a customised functional resonance analysis method, called FRAM-FDM, as traditional techniques of risk and safety assessment do not identify the interactions and couplings between the various functional aspects of the system itself, especially regarding human and organisational components. Basically, FRAM-FDM is the coupling of a traditional FRAM with flight data monitoring (FDM) techniques, used here to quantify the variabilities of the flight crew performance while executing the required activity (i.e. the landing). In this proposal, these variabilities (i.e. the FRAM functions aspects) are aggregated by the addend of a logistic regression, resulting in a model to evaluate the flare operations and the brake application profile effect on the remaining distance to the end of the runway, used as a reference to classify the landing as acceptable or not. The present application of the FRAM-FDM assesses the operational risk of a sample fleet in overrunning the runway during landing, highlighting the brake pedal application profile as the most relevant contributor. The model improves the knowledge about the system behaviour, being useful to direct flight crew training.
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利用 FRAM 和飞行数据监测进行跑道越位风险评估的新方法
跑道超限(RO)是指飞机滚出跑道尽头的结果,是航空中最常发生的事故类型之一。跑道超限的风险来自其前兆的协同效应,如不稳定的进近、长时间着陆和减速装置使用不当。为了分析这一复杂的社会技术系统,目前的工作提出了一种定制的功能共振分析方法,称为 "FRAM-FDM",因为传统的风险和安全评估技术无法识别系统本身各个功能方面之间的相互作用和耦合,特别是在人和组织部分。从根本上说,FRAM-FDM 是传统 FRAM 与飞行数据监控(FDM)技术的结合,用于量化飞行机组人员在执行所需活动(即着陆)时的表现变异性。在此建议中,这些变异性(即 FRAM 功能方面)通过逻辑回归的附加值进行汇总,从而形成一个模型,用于评估耀斑操作和制动应用轮廓对跑道末端剩余距离的影响,并作为将着陆划分为可接受与否的参考。本次应用的 FRAM-FDM 评估了样本机队在着陆时冲出跑道的运行风险,突出强调了制动踏板应用曲线是最相关的因素。该模型提高了对系统行为的认识,有助于指导飞行机组人员的培训。
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