{"title":"Can cross-lagged panel modeling be relied on to establish cross-lagged effects? The case of contemporaneous and reciprocal effects.","authors":"Bengt Muthén, Tihomir Asparouhov","doi":"10.1037/met0000661","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This article considers identification, estimation, and model fit issues for models with contemporaneous and reciprocal effects. It explores how well the models work in practice using Monte Carlo studies as well as real-data examples. Furthermore, by using models that allow contemporaneous and reciprocal effects, the paper raises a fundamental question about current practice for cross-lagged panel modeling using models such as cross-lagged panel model (CLPM) or random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM): Can cross-lagged panel modeling be relied on to establish cross-lagged effects? The article concludes that the answer is no, a finding that has important ramifications for current practice. It is suggested that analysts should use additional models to probe the temporalities of the CLPM and RI-CLPM effects to see if these could be considered contemporaneous rather than lagged. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).</p>","PeriodicalId":20782,"journal":{"name":"Psychological methods","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Psychological methods","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000661","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This article considers identification, estimation, and model fit issues for models with contemporaneous and reciprocal effects. It explores how well the models work in practice using Monte Carlo studies as well as real-data examples. Furthermore, by using models that allow contemporaneous and reciprocal effects, the paper raises a fundamental question about current practice for cross-lagged panel modeling using models such as cross-lagged panel model (CLPM) or random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM): Can cross-lagged panel modeling be relied on to establish cross-lagged effects? The article concludes that the answer is no, a finding that has important ramifications for current practice. It is suggested that analysts should use additional models to probe the temporalities of the CLPM and RI-CLPM effects to see if these could be considered contemporaneous rather than lagged. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
本文探讨了具有同期效应和互惠效应的模型的识别、估计和模型拟合问题。文章利用蒙特卡罗研究和真实数据实例，探讨了模型在实践中的运行情况。此外，通过使用允许同时效应和互惠效应的模型，本文提出了一个关于目前使用交叉滞后面板模型（CLPM）或随机截距交叉滞后面板模型（RI-CLPM）等模型进行交叉滞后面板建模的基本问题：是否可以依靠交叉滞后面板模型来确定交叉滞后效应？文章得出结论：答案是否定的，这一结论对当前的实践具有重要影响。文章建议，分析人员应使用其他模型来探究 CLPM 和 RI-CLPM 效应的时间性，以确定这些效应是否可被视为同期效应而非滞后效应。 (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved)。
期刊介绍：
Psychological Methods is devoted to the development and dissemination of methods for collecting, analyzing, understanding, and interpreting psychological data. Its purpose is the dissemination of innovations in research design, measurement, methodology, and quantitative and qualitative analysis to the psychological community; its further purpose is to promote effective communication about related substantive and methodological issues. The audience is expected to be diverse and to include those who develop new procedures, those who are responsible for undergraduate and graduate training in design, measurement, and statistics, as well as those who employ those procedures in research.
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