Early Warning Simulation of Urban Vulnerability in Coal-Resource-Based Cities Based on System Dynamics

IF 1.3 4区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI:10.1155/2024/8393217
Dongmei Feng, Liang Wang, Xiumei Duan
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Abstract

Coal-resource-based cities, as one of the important types of typical resource-based cities in China, have strong characteristics of instability, sensitivity, and fragility, exhibiting a series of vulnerability features of the human-land system. Previous studies have lacked a deeper investigation into the vulnerability of such cities from the perspective of coupling feedback mechanisms among various elements or subsystems. This paper adopts Bohle et al.’s “Dual Structure Model” of vulnerability to establish an indicator system for vulnerability warning in coal-resource-based cities. Using Fushun City as a sample, a dynamic simulation model of vulnerability in coal-resource-based cities is constructed based on system dynamics for warning simulation calculations, analyzing the evolution trend of vulnerability in Fushun City from 2010 to 2022. The results show the following: (1) from 2010 to 2022, the urban vulnerability of Fushun City transitioned from a medium warning level to a relatively safe level, showing a trend of annual reduction and improvement, undergoing three development stages of significant reduction, fluctuation stabilization, and slight rebound. (2) Due to the causal relationships among various elements within the vulnerability subsystems of Fushun City, differences exist in the contribution levels of vulnerability subsystems during the period 2010–2022, under the combined effects of sensitivity and adaptability factors. The contribution rate of the natural subsystem was the highest from 2010 to 2014, while, from 2016 to 2019, urban vulnerability began to shift towards an economically and socially dominant type. Influenced by the pandemic, Fushun City’s overall vulnerability has shown an upward trend since 2020 compared to the previous stage. Finally, specific policy suggestions are proposed for Fushun City to cope with vulnerability changes based on the analysis results, providing a theoretical basis for achieving sustainable development in such coal-resource-based cities.
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基于系统动力学的煤炭资源型城市脆弱性预警模拟
煤炭资源型城市作为我国典型资源型城市的重要类型之一,具有较强的不稳定性、敏感性和脆弱性特征,表现出一系列人地系统的脆弱性特征。以往的研究缺乏从各要素或子系统间耦合反馈机制的角度对这类城市的脆弱性进行深入研究。本文采用 Bohle 等人的脆弱性 "双重结构模型",建立煤炭资源型城市脆弱性预警指标体系。以抚顺市为样本,构建了基于系统动力学的煤炭资源型城市脆弱性动态模拟模型,进行预警模拟计算,分析了抚顺市 2010 年至 2022 年的脆弱性演变趋势。结果表明(1)2010-2022年,抚顺市城市脆弱性由中度预警水平过渡到相对安全水平,呈现逐年降低和改善的趋势,经历了显著降低、波动趋稳、略有回升三个发展阶段。(2)由于抚顺市脆弱性子系统内部各要素之间的因果关系,在敏感性因子和适应性因子的共同作用下,2010-2022年期间脆弱性子系统的贡献水平存在差异。2010-2014年,自然子系统的贡献率最高,而2016-2019年,城市脆弱性开始向经济和社会主导型转变。受大流行病的影响,抚顺市总体脆弱性自2020年起较前一阶段呈上升趋势。最后,根据分析结果提出了抚顺市应对脆弱性变化的具体政策建议,为此类煤炭资源型城市实现可持续发展提供了理论依据。
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来源期刊
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 综合性期刊-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
3.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
598
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The main objective of Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society is to foster links between basic and applied research relating to discrete dynamics of complex systems encountered in the natural and social sciences. The journal intends to stimulate publications directed to the analyses of computer generated solutions and chaotic in particular, correctness of numerical procedures, chaos synchronization and control, discrete optimization methods among other related topics. The journal provides a channel of communication between scientists and practitioners working in the field of complex systems analysis and will stimulate the development and use of discrete dynamical approach.
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