Integrated measurement of public safety risks in international construction projects in the belt and road initiative

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a comprehensive understanding of the public safety risks of international construction projects (ICPs) from the perspective of threat and vulnerability. A novel and comprehensive risk assessment approach is developed from a systemic perspective and applied to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to improve the public safety risk management strategy for ICPs in BRI.Design/methodology/approachFirst, a public safety risk indicator system was constructed from the two dimensions, namely threat and vulnerability. Next, an integrated measurement model was constructed by combining the Genetic Algorithm-Backpropagation (GA-BP) neural network, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and matter-element extension (MME) method. Data from 49 countries involved in the BRI, as well as five typical projects, were used to validate the model. Finally, targeted risk prevention measures were identified for use at the national, enterprise and project levels.FindingsThe findings indicate that while the vulnerability risks of typical projects in each region of the BRI were generally low, threat risks were high in West Asia and North Africa, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries and South Asia.Originality/valueFirst, the structure of the public safety risk system of ICPs was analyzed using vulnerability and system theories. The connotation of public safety risk was defined based on two dimensions, namely threat and vulnerability. The idea of measuring threat risk with public data and measuring vulnerability risk with project data was clarified, and the risk measurement was integrated into the measurement results to help researchers and managers understand and systematically consider the public safety risks of ICPs. Second, a public safety risk indicator system was constructed, including 18 threat risk indicators and 14 vulnerability risk indicators to address the gaps in the existing research. The MEE model was employed to overcome the problem of incompatible indicator systems and provide stable and credible integrated measurement results. Finally, the whole-process public safety risk management scheme designed in this study can help to both provide a reference point for the Chinese enterprises and oversea contractors in market selection as well as improve ICP public safety risk management.