Plant-level adjustments to imports and exports at the extensive margin

IF 5.2 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS 中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102212
Andreas Hauptmann , Hans-Jörg Schmerer , Benjamin Schwanebeck
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Abstract

This paper presents an empirical analysis of plant level responses to the China trade shock based upon a DSGE framework with heterogeneous firms. The empirical analysis shows that soaring imports from China are associated with a higher probability of plant closure. By contrast, firms in export oriented industries are less likely to exit. We rationalize these findings by several counter-factual experiments based upon a DSGE framework. Imports always raise the exit rate but the export-effect is ambiguous. More exports fuel competition among domestic rivals associated with more exits. However, this competition effect disappears when the share of exporters is extremely high. The effects of imports and exports on firm entry are close to zero in both theory and empircs. We also introduce a novel productivity shock channel. Additional export sales better protect firms from other shocks. We show this by introducing negative productivity shocks into the model.

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在广义边际上对进出口进行工厂层面的调整
本文基于异质企业的 DSGE 框架,对工厂层面对中国贸易冲击的反应进行了实证分析。实证分析表明,来自中国的进口飙升与工厂关闭的可能性增加有关。相比之下,出口导向型行业的企业退出的可能性较小。我们通过基于 DSGE 框架的几个反事实实验来合理解释这些发现。进口总是会提高退出率,但出口效应却模棱两可。更多的出口会加剧国内竞争对手之间的竞争,从而导致更多企业退出。然而,当出口商所占份额极高时,这种竞争效应就会消失。在理论和实证中,进口和出口对企业进入的影响都接近于零。我们还引入了一个新的生产率冲击渠道。额外的出口销售能更好地保护企业免受其他冲击的影响。我们通过在模型中引入负生产率冲击来证明这一点。
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来源期刊
中国经济评论
中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
10.60
自引率
4.40%
发文量
380
期刊介绍: The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.
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