Characterising, quantifying, and accessing eruption source parameters of explosive volcanic eruptions for operational simulation of tephra dispersion: a current view and future perspectives

Abstract

Eruption source parameters (ESPs) are crucial for characterising volcanic eruptions and are essential inputs to numerical models used for hazard assessment. Key ESPs of explosive volcanic eruptions include plume height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration, and grain-size distribution. Some of these ESPs can be directly observed during an eruption, but others are difficult to measure in real-time, or indeed, accurately and precisely quantify afterwards. Estimates of ESPs for eruptions that cannot be observed, for example, due to the remote location of a volcano or poor weather conditions, are often defined using expert judgement and data from past eruptions, both from the volcano of interest and analogue volcanoes farther afield. Analysis of such information is time intensive and difficult, particularly during eruption response. These difficulties have resulted in the production of datasets to aid quick identification of ESPs prior to or during an eruption for use in operational response settings such as those at volcano observatories and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres. These resources include the Mastin et al. (2009a) ESP dataset and the Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes and European Catalogue of Volcanoes aviation tables. Here, we review and compare these resources, which take different approaches to assigning ESPs. We identify future areas for development of these resources, highlighting the need for frequent updates as more knowledge of volcanic activity is gained and as modelling capabilities and requirements change.