Rising extreme meltwater trends in Greenland ice sheet (1950 – 2022): surface energy balance and large-scale circulation changes

Abstract

Abstract The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) meltwater runoff has increased considerably since the 1990s, leading to implications for the ice sheet mass balance and ecosystem dynamics in ice-free areas. Extreme weather events will likely continue to occur in the coming decades. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of extreme melting events is of interest. This study aims to analyze the evolution of extreme melting events acrossthe GrIS and determine the climatic factors that drive them. Specifically, we have analyzed extreme melting events (90th percentile) across the GrIS from 1950 to 2022 and examined their links to the surface energy balance (SEB) and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Extreme melting days account for approximately 35-40% of the total accumulated melting per season. We found that extreme melting frequency, intensity, and contribution to the total accumulated June, July and August (summer) melting show a statistically significant upward trend at a 95% confidence level. The largest trends are detected across the northern GrIS. The trends are independent of the extreme melting percentile rank (90th, 97th, or 99th) analyzed, and are consistent with average melting trends that exhibit an increase of similar magnitude and spatial configuration. Radiation plays a dominant role in controlling the SEB during extreme melting days. The increase in extreme melting frequency and intensity is driven by the increase of anticyclonic weather types during summer and more energy available for melting. Our results help to enhance the understanding of extreme events in the Arctic.