Subglacial Discharge Accelerates Dynamic Retreat of Aurora Subglacial Basin Outlet Glaciers, East Antarctica, Over the 21st Century

Abstract

Recent studies have revealed the presence of a complex freshwater system underlying the Aurora Subglacial Basin (ASB), a region of East Antarctica that contains ∼7 m of global sea level potential in ice mainly grounded below sea level. However, the impact that subglacial freshwater has on driving the evolution of the dynamic outlet glaciers that drain this basin has yet to be tested in a coupled ice sheet-subglacial hydrology numerical modeling framework. Here, we project the evolution of the primary outlet glaciers draining the ASB (Moscow University Ice Shelf, Totten, Vanderford, and Adams Glaciers) in response to an evolving subglacial hydrology system and to ocean forcing through 2100, following low and high CMIP6 emission scenarios. By 2100, ice-hydrology feedbacks enhance the ASB's 2100 sea level contribution by ∼30% (7.50–9.80 mm) in high emission scenarios and accelerate the retreat of Totten Glacier's main ice stream by 25 years. Ice-hydrology feedbacks are particularly influential in the retreat of the Vanderford and Adams Glaciers, driving an additional 10 km of retreat in fully coupled simulations relative to uncoupled simulations. Hydrology-driven ice shelf melt enhancements are the primary cause of domain-wide mass loss in low emission scenarios, but are secondary to ice sheet frictional feedbacks under high emission scenarios. The results presented here demonstrate that ice-subglacial hydrology interactions can significantly accelerate retreat of dynamic Antarctic glaciers and that future Antarctic sea level assessments that do not take these interactions into account might be severely underestimating Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss.