Sensor degradation in nuclear reactor pressure vessels: the overlooked factor in remaining useful life prediction

Abstract

Sensor degradation poses a critical yet ‘often overlooked’ challenge in accurately predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of nuclear reactor pressure vessels (RPVs), hindering safe and efficient plant operation. This paper introduces an approach to RUL estimation that explicitly addresses sensor degradation, a significant departure from conventional methods. We model neutron embrittlement, a dominant degradation process in RPV steel, as a Wiener process and leverage real-world surveillance capsule data for insightful parameterization. Maximum likelihood estimation is utilized to characterize the degradation dynamics in the model. A Kalman filter then seamlessly integrates the degradation model with sensor measurements, effectively compensating for degradation-induced errors and providing refined state estimates. These estimates power a robust RUL prediction framework. Our results expose the profound impact of sensor degradation on conventional RUL predictions. By directly confronting sensor degradation, our method yields substantially more accurate and reliable RUL estimates. This work marks a significant advancement in the field of materials degradation, offering a powerful tool to optimize nuclear power plant safety and longevity.