Early Predictor for the Onset of Critical Transitions in Networked Dynamical Systems

Abstract

Numerous natural and human-made systems exhibit critical transitions whereby slow changes in environmental conditions spark abrupt shifts to a qualitatively distinct state. These shifts very often entail severe consequences; therefore, it is imperative to devise robust and informative approaches for anticipating the onset of critical transitions. Real-world complex systems can comprise hundreds or thousands of interacting entities, and implementing prevention or management strategies for critical transitions requires knowledge of the exact condition in which they will manifest. However, most research so far has focused on low-dimensional systems and small networks containing fewer than ten nodes or has not provided an estimate of the location where the transition will occur. We address these weaknesses by developing a deep-learning framework which can predict the specific location where critical transitions happen in networked systems with size up to hundreds of nodes. These predictions do not rely on the network topology, the edge weights, or the knowledge of system dynamics. We validate the effectiveness of our machine-learning-based framework by considering a diverse selection of systems representing both smooth (second-order) and explosive (first-order) transitions: the synchronization transition in coupled Kuramoto oscillators; the sharp decline in the resource biomass present in an ecosystem; and the abrupt collapse of a Wilson-Cowan neuronal system. We show that our method provides accurate predictions for the onset of critical transitions well in advance of their occurrences, is robust to noise and transient data, and relies only on observations of a small fraction of nodes. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our approach to real-world systems by considering empirical vegetated ecosystems in Africa.