Predicting the Future Distribution and Habitat Suitability of Ilex latifolia Thunb. in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Ilex latifolia Thunb., a plant of significant economic and medicinal value, is both edible and medicinal. Assessing the climate suitability for I. latifolia has profound implications for advancing medical progress and enhancing the quality of human life. This study comprehensively utilized data on the field distribution of I. Latifolia, as well as corresponding climatic, topographical, and soil data at these distribution points, with the aid of future climate data predicted by global climate models, and employed the MaxEnt model to predict and analyze the climate suitability areas of I. latifolia under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The research covers the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics, suitable growth range, and influencing factors from the present to the end of the 21st century (2041–2100). The predictive results of the MaxEnt model indicate that, under current climatic conditions, the main suitable growth areas for I. latifolia are concentrated in the southeastern part of China, especially in the provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang. However, facing the challenges of future climate change, it is expected that the moderately high suitable growth areas for I. latifolia will show a trend of gradual reduction. The primary climatic factors crucial for I. latifolia’s growth are annual precipitation (1469.05 to 4499.50 mm), the lowest temperature in the coldest month (−18.72 to 3.88 °C), seasonal precipitation changes (11.94 to 64.69 mm), and topographic slope (0.37 to 3.00 °), with annual precipitation being the most influential. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for the introduction of I. latifolia and offer important reference information for the artificial cultivation, resource development, and achievement of sustainable industrial development of this species.