Empowering Scenario Planning with Artificial Intelligence: A Perspective on Building Smart and Resilient Cities

Abstract

Scenario planning is a powerful tool for cities to navigate uncertainties and mitigate the impacts of adverse scenarios by projecting future outcomes based on present-day decisions. This approach is becoming increasingly important given the growing call for building resilient cities to face adverse future scenarios posed by emerging disruptive technologies and climate change. However, conventional scenario planning practices predominantly rely on expert knowledge and judgment, which may be limited in accounting for the complexity of future scenarios. Therefore, we explored the potential integration of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to assist scenario planning practices. We synthesized related studies from various disciplines (e.g., engineering, computer science, and urban planning) to identify the potential applications of AI in the three key components of scenario planning: plan generation, scenario generation, and plan evaluation. We then discuss the challenges and possible solutions for integrating AI into the scenario planning process and highlight the critical role of planning experts in this process. We conclude by outlining future research opportunities in this context. Ultimately, this study contributes to the advancement of scenario planning practices and aids the creation of more resilient cities that can thrive in an uncertain future.