Modelling and projecting regional electricity demand for Saudi Arabia

Abstract

We address the shortcomings associated with modelling national aggregate electricity consumption in a large and diverse country with unique regional characteristics. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, we employ an econometric approach to analyse the distinct responses of its regions to electricity prices and income levels. The study employs a general to specific modelling approach, utilizing data from 1990 to 2019 within the conventional energy demand theoretical framework. Our region‐specific estimations reveal income and price as the primary drivers, with the southern region exhibiting a higher sensitivity to income, while the eastern region shows a comparatively smaller response to prices attributed to its significant industrial presence. Elasticities for the central and western regions align with previous research, while eastern and southern regions exhibit larger elasticities. Weather impacts are observed only in the warmest western region, characterised by a substantial share of residential electricity consumption. Furthermore, we utilise our estimated model to project a regional baseline demand for electricity in Saudi Arabia and demonstrate how prices affect regions differently. This information is important for an oil‐exporting country like Saudi Arabia, considering the diverse fuel mix used for electricity generation across regions. Assuming moderate economic growth and no price change, our baseline projections indicate a total electricity demand of 366 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030.