The influence of oil proceeds on an economy remains a subject of debate among scholars. Most scholars agree that income from oil has direct effect on economic expansion. We explore the impact of revenue from oil on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2016. Data were collected from the Nigerian Central Bank and the World Data Indicators. We employed a non‐linear autoregressive distributive lag approach to analyse the data. The outcome exposes a direct and significant association between revenue from oil and GDP both in the short and long term. Trade openness exhibits a significant negative effect on GDP from both short‐ and long‐term perspectives. Gross capital formation directly influences GDP in the short and long run, with significant impacts primarily in the long term. The study suggests that revenue from oil has a direct and significant impact on the Nigerian economy during the period from 1981 to 2016. We recommend that the Nigerian government create a conducive environment for private investment to thrive, thereby sustaining the nation's growth potential. Additionally, the government should wisely utilise revenue from oil to revitalise non‐booming productive sectors in the economy, thus diversifying revenue sources.
{"title":"Exploring the impact of oil revenue on Nigeria's economic growth: A non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag model","authors":"Olufunke Mercy Popoola, Noah Cheruiyot Mutai, Valdrin Dervishaj, Cuong Manh Nguyen, Sushma Kumari, Gunjan Bhatia","doi":"10.1111/opec.12314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12314","url":null,"abstract":"The influence of oil proceeds on an economy remains a subject of debate among scholars. Most scholars agree that income from oil has direct effect on economic expansion. We explore the impact of revenue from oil on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2016. Data were collected from the Nigerian Central Bank and the World Data Indicators. We employed a non‐linear autoregressive distributive lag approach to analyse the data. The outcome exposes a direct and significant association between revenue from oil and GDP both in the short and long term. Trade openness exhibits a significant negative effect on GDP from both short‐ and long‐term perspectives. Gross capital formation directly influences GDP in the short and long run, with significant impacts primarily in the long term. The study suggests that revenue from oil has a direct and significant impact on the Nigerian economy during the period from 1981 to 2016. We recommend that the Nigerian government create a conducive environment for private investment to thrive, thereby sustaining the nation's growth potential. Additionally, the government should wisely utilise revenue from oil to revitalise non‐booming productive sectors in the economy, thus diversifying revenue sources.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142193481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the causal impact of the technological innovation, trade openness and economic growth on the renewable energy use (RE) in Germany, the United Kingdom and Turkey. To this end, Breitung and Candelon (Journal of Econometrics, 2006, 132, 363) causality test linked to Toda and Yamamoto (Journal of Econometrics, 1995, 66, 225) procedure is applied on data for the period 1985–2021. Our results indicate that the German RE is mainly affected by the technological innovation and economic growth, but over the long‐term. Regarding the United Kingdom, its RE dynamics is found to be significantly impacted by the technological progress, trade openness and output growth all together, but only during the long‐run. However, in Turkey, the RE long‐term pattern is mainly led by the technological innovation, while the RE short‐term dynamics is primarily drown by the trade openness. This study provides policymakers a better understanding of RE pattern to formulate appropriate policies dealing with energy security, sustainable development and environmental pollution.
{"title":"The contribution of technological innovation, trade and economic development to renewable energy use in the United Kingdom, Germany and Turkey","authors":"Mounir El‐Karimi, Karim Belcaid","doi":"10.1111/opec.12313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12313","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the causal impact of the technological innovation, trade openness and economic growth on the renewable energy use (RE) in Germany, the United Kingdom and Turkey. To this end, Breitung and Candelon (<jats:italic>Journal of Econometrics</jats:italic>, 2006, 132, 363) causality test linked to Toda and Yamamoto (<jats:italic>Journal of Econometrics</jats:italic>, 1995, 66, 225) procedure is applied on data for the period 1985–2021. Our results indicate that the German RE is mainly affected by the technological innovation and economic growth, but over the long‐term. Regarding the United Kingdom, its RE dynamics is found to be significantly impacted by the technological progress, trade openness and output growth all together, but only during the long‐run. However, in Turkey, the RE long‐term pattern is mainly led by the technological innovation, while the RE short‐term dynamics is primarily drown by the trade openness. This study provides policymakers a better understanding of RE pattern to formulate appropriate policies dealing with energy security, sustainable development and environmental pollution.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141932067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We address the shortcomings associated with modelling national aggregate electricity consumption in a large and diverse country with unique regional characteristics. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, we employ an econometric approach to analyse the distinct responses of its regions to electricity prices and income levels. The study employs a general to specific modelling approach, utilizing data from 1990 to 2019 within the conventional energy demand theoretical framework. Our region‐specific estimations reveal income and price as the primary drivers, with the southern region exhibiting a higher sensitivity to income, while the eastern region shows a comparatively smaller response to prices attributed to its significant industrial presence. Elasticities for the central and western regions align with previous research, while eastern and southern regions exhibit larger elasticities. Weather impacts are observed only in the warmest western region, characterised by a substantial share of residential electricity consumption. Furthermore, we utilise our estimated model to project a regional baseline demand for electricity in Saudi Arabia and demonstrate how prices affect regions differently. This information is important for an oil‐exporting country like Saudi Arabia, considering the diverse fuel mix used for electricity generation across regions. Assuming moderate economic growth and no price change, our baseline projections indicate a total electricity demand of 366 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030.
{"title":"Modelling and projecting regional electricity demand for Saudi Arabia","authors":"Jeyhun I. Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary","doi":"10.1111/opec.12312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12312","url":null,"abstract":"We address the shortcomings associated with modelling national aggregate electricity consumption in a large and diverse country with unique regional characteristics. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, we employ an econometric approach to analyse the distinct responses of its regions to electricity prices and income levels. The study employs a general to specific modelling approach, utilizing data from 1990 to 2019 within the conventional energy demand theoretical framework. Our region‐specific estimations reveal income and price as the primary drivers, with the southern region exhibiting a higher sensitivity to income, while the eastern region shows a comparatively smaller response to prices attributed to its significant industrial presence. Elasticities for the central and western regions align with previous research, while eastern and southern regions exhibit larger elasticities. Weather impacts are observed only in the warmest western region, characterised by a substantial share of residential electricity consumption. Furthermore, we utilise our estimated model to project a regional baseline demand for electricity in Saudi Arabia and demonstrate how prices affect regions differently. This information is important for an oil‐exporting country like Saudi Arabia, considering the diverse fuel mix used for electricity generation across regions. Assuming moderate economic growth and no price change, our baseline projections indicate a total electricity demand of 366 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141739935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This research investigates the intricate relationship between energy policy uncertainty (EGU) and foreign direct investment (FDI) within the BRIC economies over a comprehensive 27‐year period, spanning from 1996 to 2022. Employing advanced econometric techniques such as FMOLS and DOLS for regression analysis, the study unravels the nuanced impacts of EGU on both FDI inflows (IFD) and outflows (OFD). Drawing upon a comprehensive data set, the analysis reveals a significant negative correlation between EGU and IFD, indicating that heightened energy policy uncertainties deter foreign capital from entering BRICS nations. Contrarily, the study unveils a paradoxical positive relationship between EGU and OFD, suggesting that energy policy uncertainties stimulate the outflow of FDI, reflecting the adaptive strategies of multinational corporations navigating uncertainties. The study further explores the role of government effectiveness, labour force and financial sector development, shedding light on their positive influences on IFD and negative impacts on OFD. These findings underscore the importance of effective governance, a skilled labour force, and financial sector development in attracting and retaining foreign investments. This research contributes to the literature on energy policy, governance and FDI, offering policymakers and businesses nuanced insights into crafting strategies that enhance the attractiveness of BRIC nations for foreign investments. The study's findings have implications for shaping stable energy policies, improving governance effectiveness and fostering conditions conducive to sustained economic growth and development.
{"title":"BRIC in flux: Understanding the influence of energy policy uncertainty on foreign direct investment flows","authors":"M. Tabash, Umar Farooq, Suzan Sameer Issa","doi":"10.1111/opec.12311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12311","url":null,"abstract":"This research investigates the intricate relationship between energy policy uncertainty (EGU) and foreign direct investment (FDI) within the BRIC economies over a comprehensive 27‐year period, spanning from 1996 to 2022. Employing advanced econometric techniques such as FMOLS and DOLS for regression analysis, the study unravels the nuanced impacts of EGU on both FDI inflows (IFD) and outflows (OFD). Drawing upon a comprehensive data set, the analysis reveals a significant negative correlation between EGU and IFD, indicating that heightened energy policy uncertainties deter foreign capital from entering BRICS nations. Contrarily, the study unveils a paradoxical positive relationship between EGU and OFD, suggesting that energy policy uncertainties stimulate the outflow of FDI, reflecting the adaptive strategies of multinational corporations navigating uncertainties. The study further explores the role of government effectiveness, labour force and financial sector development, shedding light on their positive influences on IFD and negative impacts on OFD. These findings underscore the importance of effective governance, a skilled labour force, and financial sector development in attracting and retaining foreign investments. This research contributes to the literature on energy policy, governance and FDI, offering policymakers and businesses nuanced insights into crafting strategies that enhance the attractiveness of BRIC nations for foreign investments. The study's findings have implications for shaping stable energy policies, improving governance effectiveness and fostering conditions conducive to sustained economic growth and development.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141640827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The significance of women's contribution to attaining the Sustainable Development Goal of net zero emissions cannot be underestimated. Therefore, employing the ecofeminism theory, this research explores the effect of female gender, education expenditure and renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions in Nigeria between 1990 and 2019. The utilised methodologies include autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR). The cointegration tests showed evidence of long‐run association. The ARDL result revealed that female gender, education expenditure, and renewable energy consumption have a negative relationship with carbon dioxide emissions in the long run. This indicates that a rise in these variables is beneficial to the environment. In the short run, female gender and renewable energy consumption have a negative link with carbon dioxide emissions. For robustness check, the results obtained from the FMOLS, DOLS and CCR methods validate the ARDL findings. Furthermore, the frequency domain causality test established that the female gender has a one‐way causal influence on carbon dioxide emissions in the long, medium, and short term. Based on these outcomes, policy recommendations are further discussed.
{"title":"Exploring the association between the female gender, education expenditure, renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions: Empirical evidence from Nigeria","authors":"O. Somoye, Toluwalope Seyi Akinwande","doi":"10.1111/opec.12305","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12305","url":null,"abstract":"The significance of women's contribution to attaining the Sustainable Development Goal of net zero emissions cannot be underestimated. Therefore, employing the ecofeminism theory, this research explores the effect of female gender, education expenditure and renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions in Nigeria between 1990 and 2019. The utilised methodologies include autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR). The cointegration tests showed evidence of long‐run association. The ARDL result revealed that female gender, education expenditure, and renewable energy consumption have a negative relationship with carbon dioxide emissions in the long run. This indicates that a rise in these variables is beneficial to the environment. In the short run, female gender and renewable energy consumption have a negative link with carbon dioxide emissions. For robustness check, the results obtained from the FMOLS, DOLS and CCR methods validate the ARDL findings. Furthermore, the frequency domain causality test established that the female gender has a one‐way causal influence on carbon dioxide emissions in the long, medium, and short term. Based on these outcomes, policy recommendations are further discussed.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140965398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ahmad Alawadhi, Siddig Salih, Abdullah Aljaber, Sulayman Al‐Qudsi
This paper examined the relationship between growth and its demand side determinants in Kuwait from 1970 to 2020. A set of autoregressive distributed lag models were applied to estimate the long‐ and short‐run relationships between economic growth and its determinants. The results suggest that exports, gross fixed capital formation (investment), imports and household spending exhibit a long‐run relationship with economic growth. While exports, gross fixed capital formation, share of government spending in GDP and household spending exhibit short‐run relationship with growth. Moreover, the results suggest that long‐ and short‐run economic growth in Kuwait is mainly driven by exports and to a lesser extent household spending. As Kuwaiti exports are dominated by oil exports and oil production is limited to the organisation of petroleum exporting countries quota this limits the policy makers from the most effective tool to stimulate growth. In this context Kuwait needs to enact policies to diversify exports, build a local industrial base, utilise imports to feed into non‐oil export sectors, direct investment spending to develop non‐oil industries and encourage FDI to facilitate innovation and technology transfers and spill overs to progress from a volatile oil‐based economy to a more diversified and sustainable growth path.
{"title":"Determinants of Kuwait long‐run and short‐run economic growth","authors":"Ahmad Alawadhi, Siddig Salih, Abdullah Aljaber, Sulayman Al‐Qudsi","doi":"10.1111/opec.12304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12304","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examined the relationship between growth and its demand side determinants in Kuwait from 1970 to 2020. A set of autoregressive distributed lag models were applied to estimate the long‐ and short‐run relationships between economic growth and its determinants. The results suggest that exports, gross fixed capital formation (investment), imports and household spending exhibit a long‐run relationship with economic growth. While exports, gross fixed capital formation, share of government spending in GDP and household spending exhibit short‐run relationship with growth. Moreover, the results suggest that long‐ and short‐run economic growth in Kuwait is mainly driven by exports and to a lesser extent household spending. As Kuwaiti exports are dominated by oil exports and oil production is limited to the organisation of petroleum exporting countries quota this limits the policy makers from the most effective tool to stimulate growth. In this context Kuwait needs to enact policies to diversify exports, build a local industrial base, utilise imports to feed into non‐oil export sectors, direct investment spending to develop non‐oil industries and encourage FDI to facilitate innovation and technology transfers and spill overs to progress from a volatile oil‐based economy to a more diversified and sustainable growth path.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140800501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen, Precious Muhammed Emmanuel
This study assesses how oil revenue and capital investment affected Nigeria's economic growth from 1981 to 2020. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Toda–Yamamoto causality models for analysis. More so, we considered the possibility of structural break and thus utilised the Lee–Strazicich LM unit root test. The structural break unit roots confirm the stationarity of the variables with identified breakpoints. Therefore, the ARDL result reveals that crude oil revenue enhances short‐ and long‐term economic growth; the short‐term effect is insignificant, but it is very substantial in the long term. Again, capital investment positively but insignificantly drives short‐period economic growth. However, capital investment substantially promotes long‐term economic growth. The causality evidence indicates that crude oil revenue causes capital investment and economic growth. Also, capital investment and economic growth exhibit bidirectional causality. The evidence suggests improving oil revenue by increasing crude oil exports and ensuring pipeline security to reduce oil theft. The government should channel crude oil earnings toward capital investment to promote real economic productivity.
{"title":"The growth effect of crude oil revenue and capital investment: The Nigerian perspective","authors":"Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen, Precious Muhammed Emmanuel","doi":"10.1111/opec.12303","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12303","url":null,"abstract":"This study assesses how oil revenue and capital investment affected Nigeria's economic growth from 1981 to 2020. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Toda–Yamamoto causality models for analysis. More so, we considered the possibility of structural break and thus utilised the Lee–Strazicich LM unit root test. The structural break unit roots confirm the stationarity of the variables with identified breakpoints. Therefore, the ARDL result reveals that crude oil revenue enhances short‐ and long‐term economic growth; the short‐term effect is insignificant, but it is very substantial in the long term. Again, capital investment positively but insignificantly drives short‐period economic growth. However, capital investment substantially promotes long‐term economic growth. The causality evidence indicates that crude oil revenue causes capital investment and economic growth. Also, capital investment and economic growth exhibit bidirectional causality. The evidence suggests improving oil revenue by increasing crude oil exports and ensuring pipeline security to reduce oil theft. The government should channel crude oil earnings toward capital investment to promote real economic productivity.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140674652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Power is one of the key concepts for understanding world politics and great power's competition in international relations. In this regard, the main question of this paper is what will be the outlook of global power from an energy perspective in the 21st century? Based on the qualitative method and the comparative approach, the hypothesis of the paper is that the hegemonic power's ability to control and secure energy as a strategic commodity will be one of the main components of global power in the future. Considering the changes that have taken place in the 21st century, especially their impact on energy policy, the aim of the article is to examine the perspective of global power. Research findings show that in competition for achieving superiority in world politics, the European Union's dependence on energy constantly makes its position in the global arena more vulnerable. Russia, following the war in Ukraine and the use of energy as a political tool, faces a structural limitation of power in the short term. Moreover, China's position as the largest energy consumer in the hegemonic competition is affected by its energy security concerns. Also, the United States, as a producer and exporter of energy, will try to stabilise its hegemonic position in the competition with competing players, including China and Russia, by shaping new energy geopolitics and controlling the global energy markets.
{"title":"The outlook of global power from an energy policy perspective","authors":"R. Hajimineh, Gelare Rastegarnia","doi":"10.1111/opec.12302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12302","url":null,"abstract":"Power is one of the key concepts for understanding world politics and great power's competition in international relations. In this regard, the main question of this paper is what will be the outlook of global power from an energy perspective in the 21st century? Based on the qualitative method and the comparative approach, the hypothesis of the paper is that the hegemonic power's ability to control and secure energy as a strategic commodity will be one of the main components of global power in the future. Considering the changes that have taken place in the 21st century, especially their impact on energy policy, the aim of the article is to examine the perspective of global power. Research findings show that in competition for achieving superiority in world politics, the European Union's dependence on energy constantly makes its position in the global arena more vulnerable. Russia, following the war in Ukraine and the use of energy as a political tool, faces a structural limitation of power in the short term. Moreover, China's position as the largest energy consumer in the hegemonic competition is affected by its energy security concerns. Also, the United States, as a producer and exporter of energy, will try to stabilise its hegemonic position in the competition with competing players, including China and Russia, by shaping new energy geopolitics and controlling the global energy markets.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140722636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joseph Tuakolon Tokpah, Andisheh Saliminezhad, Huseyin Ozdeser
The purpose of this study is to examine and compare the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve and the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, per capita GDP, fossil fuel consumption, oil prices and foreign direct investment in advanced oil‐importing and oil‐exporting countries from 1970 to 2020. The researchers consider these nations for their dependency on oil resources and their different economic characteristics. The Westerlund (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2007, 69, 709) co‐integration test shows that the studied variables are co‐integrated in the long run in both panels of the countries. The pooled mean group‐autoregressive distributed lag (PMG‐ARDL) model established by Pesaran et al. (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1999, 94, 621), which assesses the short‐ and long‐run nexus between the variables of interest, detects statistically significant associations, providing evidence to support the hypothesis of EKC in both groups. Furthermore, foreign direct investment and fossil fuel consumption have long‐term positive effects on CO2 emissions. The main difference between both groups of countries is that oil price has a positive effect on CO2 emissions in oil‐exporting countries, while it has a negative effect on environmental degradation in oil‐importing countries. The study suggests increasing investment in renewable energy infrastructure by encouraging research and development, providing subsidies and tax incentives for renewable energy companies and promoting large‐scale renewable energy projects as they contribute to environmental quality.
{"title":"CO2 emissions–economic growth nexus: Validity of EKC in oil‐exporting and oil‐importing countries","authors":"Joseph Tuakolon Tokpah, Andisheh Saliminezhad, Huseyin Ozdeser","doi":"10.1111/opec.12301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12301","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to examine and compare the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve and the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, per capita GDP, fossil fuel consumption, oil prices and foreign direct investment in advanced oil‐importing and oil‐exporting countries from 1970 to 2020. The researchers consider these nations for their dependency on oil resources and their different economic characteristics. The Westerlund (<jats:italic>Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics</jats:italic>, 2007, 69, 709) co‐integration test shows that the studied variables are co‐integrated in the long run in both panels of the countries. The pooled mean group‐autoregressive distributed lag (PMG‐ARDL) model established by Pesaran et al. (<jats:italic>Journal of the American Statistical Association</jats:italic>, 1999, 94, 621), which assesses the short‐ and long‐run nexus between the variables of interest, detects statistically significant associations, providing evidence to support the hypothesis of EKC in both groups. Furthermore, foreign direct investment and fossil fuel consumption have long‐term positive effects on CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emissions. The main difference between both groups of countries is that oil price has a positive effect on CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emissions in oil‐exporting countries, while it has a negative effect on environmental degradation in oil‐importing countries. The study suggests increasing investment in renewable energy infrastructure by encouraging research and development, providing subsidies and tax incentives for renewable energy companies and promoting large‐scale renewable energy projects as they contribute to environmental quality.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140602407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper brings to light the factors that played major role in explaining the trend of the economic growth of a number of oil‐exporting countries during the pandemic period, specifically, during the years 2020–2021 and 2022. The results show that the institutional factors, adaptive restrictions as well as the degree of trade openness and the size of government fiscal intervention were major determinants of the trend of the GDP of the countries in question. Based on the findings, the paper recommends some policy measures and highlights important future challenges that test efforts of globalization.
{"title":"Explaining the GDP trend of oil‐exporting countries during COVID‐19 period: The role of governance, adaptive stringency and fiscal policy","authors":"Mahieddine Adnan Ghecham","doi":"10.1111/opec.12300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12300","url":null,"abstract":"This paper brings to light the factors that played major role in explaining the trend of the economic growth of a number of oil‐exporting countries during the pandemic period, specifically, during the years 2020–2021 and 2022. The results show that the institutional factors, <jats:italic>adaptive</jats:italic> restrictions as well as the degree of trade openness and the size of government fiscal intervention were major determinants of the trend of the GDP of the countries in question. Based on the findings, the paper recommends some policy measures and highlights important future challenges that test efforts of globalization.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140074340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：