Detection and attribution of changes in precipitation extremes in China and its different climate zones

Abstract

Based on the observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model simulations, we conducted a detection and attribution analysis for the observed changes in intensity and frequency indices of extreme precipitation during 1961-2014 over the whole of China and within distinct climate regions across the country. A space-time analysis is simultaneously applied in detection so that spatial structure on the signals is considered. Results show that the CMIP6 models can simulate the observed general increases of extreme precipitation indices during the historical period except for the drying trends from southwestern to northeastern China. The anthropogenic signal (ANT) is detectable and attributable to the observed increase of extreme precipitation over China, with human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) increases being the dominant contributor. Additionally, we also detected the ANT and GHG signals in China’s Temperate continental, Subtropical-tropical monsoon, and Plateau mountain climate zones, demonstrating the role of human activity in historical extreme precipitation changes on much smaller spatial scales.