Modelling and Assessing Environmental Impact in Transport to Meet the Sector’s Climate Goals in 2050

Abstract

The transport sector has had and continues to have an extraordinary impact on the annual final consumption report based on fossil resources limited by technology and as a result has brought and continues to present very serious problems for the impact on the environment. The transport sector, particularly in developing countries, has a critical role in final energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies. Albanian transport sector ranks first in terms of total energy consumption and consequently in emissions that may increase particularly rapidly, and the costs of future retroactive mitigation activities may be prohibitive if no energy efficiency measures (EEM) are undertaken. The total energy consumption by the end of 2050 is calculated using multiple variable regression methods driven by the GDP growth rate, and population projections, while the combination of energy fluxes by fuel type is based on National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) requirements. In this study two scenarios are developed using an advanced energy system analysis computer model, EnergyPLAN, enabling a smart, sustainable, flexible, diversified, and environmentally friendly Albanian transport sector based on renewable energy sources (RES) and electricity. In this paper the integration of different alternative energy sources and future expected energy sources driven by two basic criteria: the security of supply, with a minimal environmental impact toward 2050 goals by using EnergyPLAN are proposed.