Projected navigability of Arctic shipping routes based on climate model FIO-ESM v2.1

Abstract

As Arctic sea ice has rapidly declined, the navigational potential of the Arctic routes has greatly increased. Based on sea ice output from the First Institute Of Oceanography-Earth System Model version 2.1 (FIO-ESM v2.1) and the Arctic Transport Accessibility Model, this study investigates the future navigability of the Arctic routes for open-water ships (OW) without icebreaking capabilities and ships with different icebreaking capabilities, namely Polar Class 7 (PC7), Polar Class 6 (PC6), and Polar Class 3 (PC3). The results show that the simulations of FIO-ESM v2.1 adequately reproduce the changes in the navigability of the four types of ships in Arctic shipping routes over the past 40 years. The navigable area for the four ship types is projected to continue to expand in the future. Under the high emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5–8.5, SSP585), the four ship types are projected to achieve full Arctic navigability in summer (September) by the end of the 21st century, and PC6 and PC3 ships are projected to achieve full Arctic navigability in winter (March). Under the high emission scenario, year-round navigability in the Northwest Passage is projected for PC3 and PC6 ships, and in the Northeast Passage is projected for all four types of ships. The impact of emission scenario on the navigability of the Arctic shipping routes varies with different ship types: the largest impact is for OW ships, followed by PC6 and PC7 ships, and the smallest impact is for PC3 ships. The impact of scenario is also larger in winter than in summer.