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Nonlinear threshold response and erosion-driven pathways of sediment organic carbon to anthropogenic activities in a large lake 大型湖泊沉积物有机碳对人为活动的非线性阈值响应及侵蚀驱动路径
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100536
Fengwei Ran , Tao Xiao , Zhongwu Li , Shilan Wang , Yinglong Hou , Haipeng Wu , Xiaodong Nie
Understanding the response of lake sediment organic carbon fluxes (FSOC) to anthropogenic activities in upper basins is critical for managing global carbon fluxes. However, the quantitative relationship between FSOC and human activity intensity (HAI) in large lakes remains poorly constrained. Here, we investigated the response functions, magnitudes, and pathways of FSOC to HAI across rivers draining into large lakes and their upper eco-environment. HAI was quantified by key anthropogenic drivers (e.g., land use intensity, economic growth), which explained 71 %–87 % of soil erosion variability in the basins. The logarithmic-linear model revealed a significant nonlinear response of FSOC to HAI (R2>0.44, P < 0.001). Distinct response thresholds were identified across sub-basin types: four thresholds (HAI = 1.0, 1.6, 2.3, 2.9) in developed basin, four (HAI = 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.9) in developing basin, and one (HAI = 1.3) in undeveloped basin. Partial least squares path model (goodness-of-fit: 0.72–0.81) further quantified the driving path of HAI on FSOC. The direct factors were soil erosion in developed basin (r: 0.84, p < 0.001), soil erosion in developing basin (r: −0.94, p < 0.001), and land use changes in undeveloped basin (r: 0.60, p < 0.01). Our findings revealed that FSOC in large shallow lakes responded nonlinearly to upstream HAI, with threshold-driven shifts and erosion-mediated pathways. This work advanced mechanistic insights into human-climate-carbon interactions and provided critical information for optimizing carbon management strategies in aquatic ecosystem under global changes.
了解上游流域湖泊沉积物有机碳通量对人类活动的响应对全球碳通量管理具有重要意义。然而,大型湖泊FSOC与人类活动强度(HAI)之间的定量关系尚不明确。在此基础上,研究了大型湖泊河流及其上游生态环境中FSOC对HAI的响应函数、强度和途径。主要人为驱动因素(如土地利用强度、经济增长)对HAI进行了量化,解释了流域71 % -87 %的土壤侵蚀变异性。对数线性模型显示FSOC对HAI有显著的非线性响应(R2>0.44, P <; 0.001)。在不同的子盆地类型中,发现了不同的响应阈值:发达盆地有4个阈值(HAI = 1.0、1.6、2.3、2.9),发展盆地有4个阈值(HAI = 1.0、1.5、2.0、2.9),不发达盆地有1个阈值(HAI = 1.3)。偏最小二乘路径模型(拟合优度:0.72-0.81)进一步量化了HAI对FSOC的驱动路径。直接影响因素是发达流域的土壤侵蚀(r∂:0.84,p <; 0.001)、发展中流域的土壤侵蚀(r∂:- 0.94,p <; 0.001)和不发达流域的土地利用变化(r∂:0.60,p <; 0.01)。研究结果表明,大型浅湖FSOC对上游HAI具有非线性响应,具有阈值驱动的变化和侵蚀介导的路径。该研究为人类-气候-碳相互作用的机理研究提供了新的思路,并为全球变化下水生生态系统碳管理策略的优化提供了重要信息。
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引用次数: 0
Ecological responses of the largest lake-wetland system (North China Plain) to hydrological regulation and cultural eutrophication over the past 70 years 华北平原70年来最大湖泊湿地系统对水文调节和人工富营养化的生态响应
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100534
Longjuan Cheng , John P. Smol , Qi Lin , Chaoran Wei , Shuyi Yang , Dejun Wan , Qingfeng Jiang , Dongliang Ning , Bin Xue
Zooplankton composition and abundance changes highlight the urgent need to unravel the complex impacts of multiple stressors on the ecological conditions of freshwater wetlands. However, the temporal trajectory of ecological responses of zooplankton in large freshwater wetland system during the Anthropocene still remains largely unsolved. This study presents an evolutionary process to explore these ecological dynamics over an extended historical timeline. Based on subfossil records of Cladocera zooplankton and other paleolimnological evidence, along with historical data on hydrological patterns, climate variables, and human activities, this study examines the ecological responses of Baiyangdian, a large freshwater lake–wetland system in northern China, to changes in hydrological regulation and cultural eutrophication. Two notable ecological regime shifts in the Cladocera community over the past ∼70 years, occurred around the 1950s and again the early 2000s driving by the accumulation of sedimentary nutrient and organic matter. Especially during the early 2000s, a notable increase in socioeconomic development and hydrological regulation led to an unprecedented acceleration of water eutrophication and ecosystem degradation in Baiyangdian. This trajectory threatened aquatic ecosystem safety and prompted further ecological shifts. Our multidecadal study provides fundamental support for the ecological conservation and integrated management of this iconic lake-wetland ecosystem under multiple stressors.
浮游动物组成和丰度的变化凸显了多重应激源对淡水湿地生态条件复杂影响的迫切需要。然而,人类世期间大型淡水湿地系统浮游动物生态响应的时间轨迹仍未得到充分研究。本研究提出了一个进化过程,以探索在一个延长的历史时间轴上这些生态动态。基于浮游动物枝纲亚化石记录和其他古湖泊学证据,结合水文模式、气候变量和人类活动的历史数据,研究了中国北方大型淡水湖-湿地系统白洋淀对水文调节和富营养化变化的生态响应。在过去的70年里,枝角藻群落发生了两次显著的生态制度转变,分别发生在20世纪50年代和21世纪初,这是由沉积营养物质和有机物的积累所驱动的。特别是21世纪初,社会经济发展和水文调控的显著加强,导致白洋淀水体富营养化和生态系统退化的速度空前加快。这一趋势威胁着水生生态系统的安全,并促使进一步的生态转移。多年来的研究为这一标志性的湖泊湿地生态系统在多重压力下的生态保护和综合管理提供了基础支持。
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引用次数: 0
Agriculture and the rising ecological footprint in India 农业和印度不断增长的生态足迹
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100532
Shadman Zafar
India’s ecological footprint has been rising alarmingly, posing a serious challenge to its sustainability goals. Despite agriculture’s potential to act as a carbon sink, the sector has increasingly become a source of environmental degradation due to energy-intensive and unsustainable practices. This paradox forms the core problem that this study addresses: Why is the agricultural sector in India, despite its scale and importance, unable to mitigate emissions and instead contributing to worsening ecological outcomes? Using annual data from 1965 to 2022, the study employs a Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to examine the asymmetric effects of agricultural value added on ecological footprint, along with the roles of energy consumption, trade openness, and urbanization. Findings show a strong asymmetry: 1 % increase in agricultural value added aggravates ecological footprint by 1.20 %, whereas the same decline reduces ecological footprint by only 0.58 %. It reveals that positive shocks in agricultural value added have a disproportionately larger adverse impact on the ecological footprint than the negative shocks. The findings provide evidence-based support for transformative agricultural policies that decouple economic growth from environmental harm emphasizing the need for a transition toward sustainable agricultural practices in India. For policymakers, these insights offer a roadmap to redesign agricultural subsidies, incentives, and regulations that promote climate-smart techniques, renewable energy adoption, and efficient resource management across India's diverse agricultural landscape. By quantifying the asymmetric relationship between agricultural value added and ecological footprint, this research provides crucial benchmarks for India's climate commitments and sustainable development goals.
印度的生态足迹一直在惊人地增长,对其可持续发展目标构成了严重挑战。尽管农业具有碳汇的潜力,但由于能源密集型和不可持续的做法,该部门已日益成为环境退化的一个根源。这一悖论构成了本研究要解决的核心问题:为什么印度的农业部门,尽管其规模和重要性,却无法减少排放,反而导致了生态结果的恶化?利用1965年至2022年的年度数据,本研究采用非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)模型,考察了农业增加值对生态足迹的不对称影响,以及能源消耗、贸易开放和城市化的作用。研究结果显示出强烈的不对称性:农业增加值增加1 %会使生态足迹恶化1.20 %,而同样的农业增加值下降只会使生态足迹减少0.58 %。结果表明,农业增加值正向冲击对生态足迹的负面影响比负向冲击大得多。研究结果为将经济增长与环境危害脱钩的变革性农业政策提供了证据支持,强调了印度向可持续农业实践过渡的必要性。对于政策制定者来说,这些见解为重新设计农业补贴、激励措施和法规提供了路线图,以促进气候智能型技术、可再生能源的采用,并在印度多样化的农业景观中进行有效的资源管理。通过量化农业增加值和生态足迹之间的不对称关系,本研究为印度的气候承诺和可持续发展目标提供了重要的基准。
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引用次数: 0
Anthropogenically driven deterioration of water quality in macrophyte-dominated freshwater lakes from Yangtze River basin, Eastern China 长江流域以大型植物为主的淡水湖水质的人为恶化
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100533
Lu Peng , Huan Fu , Yongdong Zhang , Kunshan Bao
The rapid development of social-economic activities in Yangtze River basin over the past century has a significant potential to degrade environment of local lakes; however, environmental dynamic in macrophyte-dominated lakes of this region and its interaction with anthropogenic forcing remains inadequately understood. Here, long-term successive change of water quality in two typical macrophyte-dominated freshwater lakes (Xiliang and Liangzi) from the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin was examined by high-resolution paleolimnological approach using multiple geochemical proxies, including lipid biomarker (short-chain n-alkane abundance, n-C17/n-C16 alkane, αβ-hopane abundance, homohopane index), hydrogen index (HI), and trace element (As, Cd, Pb, and Zn) enrichment factors (EFs), and anthropogenic drivers responsible for altering natural water quality variability was isolated by comparing timing of changes in geochemical results and documental records of human activities within and around the lakes. In Lake Xiliang, notable increase of HI and n-C17/n-C16 alkane in sediments after ca. 1961 indicated phytoplankton proliferation and thus a nutrient enriched lake water in this period, with agricultural expansion being the major driver of change. After ca. 1977, all geochemical proxies above prominently increased relative to before, implying the lake was more eutrophic and simultaneously polluted by petroleum products and heavy metals, which might have been linked to in-lake aquaculture and further development of agriculture in lake catchment especially the use of new technologies. In Lake Liangzi, the geochemical proxies highlight that the lake underwent eutrophication, petroleum and heavy metal pollution since ca. 1993, and the delayed deterioration of water quality in this lake might be related to the development of dense submerged macrophytes in littoral area which rendered the lake less vulnerable to external stressors by prohibiting the transport of nutrients and contamination to lake center until a critical threshold was crossed. This study highlights the utility of multiple proxies to provide a complete record of water quality dynamics in macrophyte-dominated freshwater lakes. The paleolimnological perspective of how water quality responds to synergistic external stressors and in-lake processes could be helpful for designing environmental management and restoration strategies to mitigate water quality deterioration in these lakes.
近百年来长江流域社会经济活动的快速发展对湖泊环境的退化具有显著的潜在影响;然而,该地区以大型植物为主的湖泊的环境动态及其与人为强迫的相互作用尚不清楚。采用高分辨率古湖沼学方法,利用脂类生物标志物(短链正构烷烃丰度、n-C17/n-C16烷烃、αβ-藿烷丰度、同型藿烷指数)、氢指数(HI)和微量元素(As、Cd、Pb、Zn)富集因子(EFs)等多种地球化学指标,研究了长江中游两个典型大型植物主导的淡水湖(西凉和梁子)水质的长期连续变化。通过比较地球化学结果的变化时间和湖泊内外人类活动的文献记录,可以分离出对自然水质变化负责的人为驱动因素。1961年以后,西凉湖沉积物中HI和n-C17/n-C16烷烃含量显著增加,表明该时期浮游植物大量繁殖,湖水营养物丰富,农业扩张是主要驱动因素。约1977年以后,上述地球化学指标均较前显著增加,表明湖泊富营养化程度加重,同时受到石油产品和重金属的污染,这可能与湖内水产养殖和湖泊流域农业的进一步发展特别是新技术的使用有关。梁子湖的地球化学指标表明,自1993年以来,梁子湖经历了富营养化、石油和重金属污染,其水质恶化的延迟可能与沿海地区密集的淹没植物的发展有关,这些植物阻止了营养物和污染物向湖中心的运输,直到超过临界阈值,使湖泊不易受到外界压力的影响。这项研究强调了多种代理的效用,以提供一个完整的记录,在大型植物为主的淡水湖泊的水质动态。从古湖泊学的角度研究水质如何响应协同外部压力源和湖内过程,有助于设计环境管理和恢复策略,以减轻这些湖泊的水质恶化。
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引用次数: 0
Forests, pastures, and furnaces in the south-eastern Alps: the Mid-Late Holocene palaeoenvironmental record of Lake Caldonazzo 阿尔卑斯东南部的森林、牧场和火炉:卡尔多纳佐湖的中晚全新世古环境记录
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100530
Giorgio Piazzalunga , Marta Dal Corso , Maela Baldan , Mara Bortolini , Dario Battistel , Ingo Feeser , Emanuele Farinini , Riccardo Leardi , Jesper Olsen , Federico Polisca , Michele Cupitò , Marco Avanzini , Cristiano Nicosia
Drawing on the Lake Caldonazzo sedimentary record (Valsugana, Italy), this study reconstructs palaeoecological dynamics from the 6th to 1st millennium BCE, revealing the environmental imprint of pre-protohistoric copper mining in the south-eastern Alps. Integrating bio- and geochemical proxies (micro-botanical data, micro-charcoal, faecal biomarkers, and trace elements) we reconstruct the interplay between environmental dynamics and anthropogenic impacts from the Neolithic to the beginning of Iron Age. During the Middle Holocene, pristine silver fir-beech forests dominated the landscape, with incipient Neolithic human influence evidenced by pastoral indicators despite the absence of known settlements in the valley. Copper Age forest decline resulted from climate-induced cooling interacting with agropastoral activity expansion. During the Early and Middle Bronze Age, human impact on mountain ecosystems increased with the integrated development of farming, forest exploitation, and pastoral activities, while early geochemical signals raise the possibility of incipient local metallurgy during the advanced Middle Bronze Age. The Recent-Final Bronze Age marked a metallurgical apex, as evidenced by a surge in the heavy metal enrichment factor and micro-charcoal peaks, corroborating the current archaeological interpretative model. The latter saw the south-eastern Trentino as a continental-scale production hub before environmental degradation and resource depletion marked its end between the 2nd and 1st millennium BCE. Land use reactivation became evident during the subsequent territorial reorganisation of the Early Iron Age. Notably, the Löbben and Göschenen 1 climatic oscillation modulated but did not override anthropic pressures. The study demonstrates that pre-protohistoric communities triggered significant environmental impacts (e.g., deforestation, erosion, heavy metal pollution), underscoring the ecological consequences of resource exploitation within sensitive Alpine ecosystems.
利用Caldonazzo湖沉积记录(意大利Valsugana),重建了公元前6 - 1千年的古生态动力学,揭示了阿尔卑斯东南部史前铜矿开采的环境印记。综合生物和地球化学指标(微植物学数据、微炭、粪便生物标志物和微量元素),我们重建了新石器时代至铁器时代初期环境动力学与人为影响之间的相互作用。在全新世中期,原始的银冷杉山毛榉森林主导了这片景观,尽管山谷中没有已知的定居点,但新石器时代早期的人类影响得到了牧民指标的证明。铜时代森林退化是由气候引起的降温与农牧活动扩大相互作用造成的。在青铜器时代早期和中期,人类对山地生态系统的影响随着农业、森林开发和畜牧活动的综合发展而增加,而早期的地球化学信号则提高了中青铜器时代晚期当地早期冶金的可能性。最近-最后的青铜时代标志着一个冶金顶点,重金属富集系数和微炭峰的激增证明了这一点,证实了目前的考古解释模型。后者将特伦蒂诺东南部视为大陆规模的生产中心,直到环境退化和资源枯竭在公元前2至1千年之间结束。在随后的早期铁器时代的领土重组中,土地利用的重新激活变得明显。值得注意的是,Löbben和Göschenen 1气候振荡调节了但没有超越人为压力。该研究表明,史前群落引发了重大的环境影响(如森林砍伐、侵蚀、重金属污染),强调了在敏感的高山生态系统中资源开发的生态后果。
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引用次数: 0
Shifting drivers of holocene fire regimes in Uzbekistan: From natural factors to anthropogenic impact 乌兹别克斯坦全新世火灾变化的驱动因素:从自然因素到人为影响
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100531
Chéïma Barhoumi , Lucas Dugerdil , Marie-Estelle Delpiroux , Julie Alibert , Dilfuza Egamberdieva , Jahongir Alimov , Marion Lestienne , Christelle Hély , Adam A. Ali , Elise Luneau , Johanna Lhuillier , Sébastien Joannin
In the context of the current fire intensification associated to climate aridification, this study explores Holocene fire regimes in the foothills of the Pamir-Alai Range (Uzbekistan) through macro-charcoal analysis of sediment cores from Lake Fazilman and the Ogshagil wetland, spanning the past 11000 years. In addition to their novelty, the results reveal distinct fire phases driven by both climatic fluctuations and human activities. During the early Holocene (12000–5000 cal. yr BP), fire activity was primarily climate-driven, with higher frequencies during arid phases. A significant shift occurred around 4000 – 3000 cal. yr BP, with synchronous fire trends at both sites suggesting increased anthropogenic influence linked to agro-pastoral practices of the Oxus Civilization, the Andronovo Cultures and the Handmade Painted Ware Cultures. Fire frequency declined during periods of intensified agricultural practices but increased again in later centuries, likely influenced by shifts in land use and socio-economic dynamics. Over the past 500 years, a rise in fire activity and woody plant combustion, likely influenced by post-medieval pastoral land use and firewood transportation, suggests intensified human impact. This study provides new insights into the interplay between climate, vegetation, human activity and fire in shaping Central Asia's steppe landscapes.
在当前与气候干旱化相关的火灾加剧的背景下,本研究通过对Fazilman湖和Ogshagil湿地沉积物岩心进行宏观木炭分析,探讨了帕米尔阿莱山脉(乌兹别克斯坦)山麓全新世的火灾状况,时间跨越11000年。除了它们的新颖性之外,结果还揭示了由气候波动和人类活动驱动的不同的火灾阶段。在全新世早期(12000—5000 cal. yr BP),火灾活动主要由气候驱动,在干旱期发生频率较高。一个显著的转变发生在4000 - 3000 cal左右。这两个地点的同步火灾趋势表明,与奥克斯文明、安德罗诺沃文化和手工彩绘文化的农牧实践有关的人为影响增加。在集约化农业实践期间,火灾频率下降,但在随后的几个世纪中,可能受到土地利用变化和社会经济动态的影响,火灾频率再次增加。在过去的500年里,火灾活动和木本植物燃烧的增加,可能受到中世纪后畜牧业土地利用和木柴运输的影响,表明人类的影响加剧。这项研究为气候、植被、人类活动和火灾在塑造中亚草原景观中的相互作用提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Human-environment dynamics at Lake Burdur (Southwestern Türkiye): A Paleoenvironmental perspective from a 4600-year pollen sequence 布尔杜尔湖的人类环境动态:来自4600年花粉序列的古环境视角
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100529
Demet Biltekin , Mesut Kolbüken
This study investigates a long–term interaction between climate, vegetation and human societies in the Burdur Basin in southwestern Türkiye during the last 4600 years. The regional vegetation was dominated primarily by evergreen Mediterranean species, such as Quercus ilex, Pinus, Olea europaea and Juglans regia. The recurrent presence of Cedrus libani pollen indicates long–distance transport from the Taurus Mountains. The continuous occurrence and increased abundance of cultivated and disturbance–related taxa, including Juglans regia, Olea europaea, Poaceae, Amaranthaceae, Plantago lanceolata type and other ruderal and grazing indicators, indicates anthropogenic influence. A pronounced increase in arboreal pollen, particularly from Pinus, around 2700 yr BP marks a transition from relatively open landscapes to denser forest cover. This period was characterised by significant fluctuations in the dominant species, with Pinus and Quercus ilex initially expanding and then declining before showing renewed increases after 1000 yr BP. Juniperus and deciduous Quercus also display marked variability, reflecting shifting climatic conditions and land use intensity. Pollen–based climate reconstructions indicate a gradual rise in summer temperatures (MTWA), reaching a maximum of ∼24 °C around 2700 yr BP, while winter temperatures (MTCO) remained comparatively stable. The increasing summer warmth led to enhanced thermal stress on vegetation, as reflected by rising GDD0 values, while plant moisture conditions remained relatively stable. After ∼2500 yr BP, climatic variability intensified, with pronounced fluctuations in MTWA and modest changes in moisture availability. Principal Component Analysis identifies a dominant gradient separating arboreal from non–arboreal vegetation, reflecting long–term alternations between forested and open landscapes. Redundancy analysis further demonstrates that temperature exerts primary control over vegetation structure, while moisture availability acts as a secondary driver, influencing grazing pressure, disturbance taxa and human land use intensity.
本研究考察了过去4600年间基耶省西南部Burdur盆地气候、植被和人类社会之间的长期相互作用。区域植被以冬青栎、松、油橄榄和王核桃等地中海常绿树种为主。雪松花粉的反复出现表明来自金牛座山脉的长途运输。栽培和干扰相关分类群的持续出现和丰度增加,包括核桃、油橄榄、禾科、苋科、车前草类型和其他野生和放牧指标,表明人为影响。大约2700 年BP左右,树木花粉,特别是松树花粉的显著增加标志着从相对开放的景观向茂密的森林覆盖的过渡。这一时期的特点是优势种的显著波动,松木和栓皮栎最初扩大,然后下降,在1000 年BP后再次增加。杜松和落叶松也表现出明显的变异,反映了气候条件和土地利用强度的变化。基于花粉的气候重建表明,夏季气温(MTWA)逐渐上升,在2700 yr BP左右达到最大值~ 24°C,而冬季气温(MTCO)保持相对稳定。夏季增温导致植被热胁迫增强,表现为GDD0值升高,而植物水分条件保持相对稳定。在~ 2500 yr BP之后,气候变率加剧,MTWA波动明显,水分有效性变化不大。主成分分析确定了一个区分树木和非树木植被的优势梯度,反映了森林和开阔景观之间的长期交替。冗余分析进一步表明,温度对植被结构起主要控制作用,水分有效性起次要驱动作用,影响放牧压力、干扰类群和人类土地利用强度。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating biodiversity and key ecosystem services into the optimization of multi-scenario land use simulation in the Three-River-Source National Park region, China 将生物多样性和关键生态系统服务纳入三江源国家公园区多情景土地利用模拟优化
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100528
Shengwang Bao , Fan Yang , Fanzhen Kong , Yongsheng Lin , Yingshuang Hu
As an important ecological barrier in China, land use degradation in the Three-River-Source National Park (TRSNP) poses significant threats to regional ecosystem health. Therefore, optimizing land use in the alpine ecosystem is crucial for achieving sustainable development. Based on the ecosystem service assessment and species distribution modeling, we identify the priority protection area, which serves as a constraint for future land use simulation under various climate change scenarios. The results show that: (1) Using the priority protected area as a constraint results in higher accuracy in land use simulation, with a Kappa of 0.98 and an FoM of 0.78. (2) The historical land use evolution indicates a trend of degradation from 2000 to 2005 (744.52 km²) but shows subsequent restoration from 2005 to 2020 (7037.71 km²). (3) A persistent degradation trend remains evident, manifested as a decline in grassland coverage. Although under the SSP-126 scenarios, the quantity of grassland shows an increasing trend, the quality exhibits a declining trend (a decrease of 412.19 km² in high coverage of grassland, and increases of 424.28 km² and 7537.89 km² in middle and low coverage of grassland, respectively). Furthermore, we construct a Species Distribution Index that integrates the joint distribution probability of multiple key species across both plant and animal kingdoms, providing a mechanistically grounded and spatially explicit metric to quantify biodiversity and offering a transferable framework for regional application. This research outlines strategic directions for alpine ecosystems and provides actionable recommendations.
作为中国重要的生态屏障,三江源国家公园土地利用退化严重威胁着区域生态系统的健康。因此,优化高寒生态系统土地利用对实现可持续发展至关重要。基于生态系统服务评估和物种分布模型,确定了优先保护区,为未来不同气候变化情景下的土地利用模拟提供了约束条件。结果表明:(1)以优先保护区为约束条件的土地利用模拟精度较高,Kappa为0.98,FoM为0.78。(2) 2000 ~ 2005年土地利用演变呈现退化趋势(744.52 km²),2005 ~ 2020年呈现恢复趋势(7037.71 km²)。(3)持续退化趋势明显,表现为草地覆盖度下降。SSP-126情景下,草地数量呈增加趋势,但草地质量呈下降趋势(高覆盖度草地减少412.19 km²,中低覆盖度草地分别增加424.28 km²和7537.89 km²)。此外,我们构建了一个物种分布指数,该指数整合了多个关键物种在植物和动物领域的联合分布概率,为量化生物多样性提供了一个机制基础和空间明确的度量,并为区域应用提供了一个可转移的框架。本研究概述了高寒生态系统的战略方向,并提出了可行的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of the humid climate on the development of two ancient civilizations on the northeastern margin of the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau 青藏高原东北缘湿润气候对两大古文明发展的影响
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100527
Mingjun Gao, Yu Li, Tingting Xi, Jiarui Zhao, Zhansen Zhang, Junjie Duan, Yaxin Xue, Hao Shang, Shiyu Liu
The impact of climate change on human social development and civilizational evolution in the Holocene has been widely recognized by researchers. During the arid conditions of the late Holocene, the Siba and Shajing cultures flourished in the Hexi Corridor at the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. This occupation may be closely related to a short-term humid climate; however, the climate change patterns in the Hexi Corridor since the Holocene and their possible impact on human remain unclear. In this study, we acquired three lake sections in the Hexi Corridor and integrated paleoclimate records from surrounding areas, radiocarbon dates from human and animal bones, and plants from archaeological sites to investigate the relationship between human activity and climate change in the Hexi Corridor. The results indicate that the eastern and western regions of the Hexi Corridor experienced humid periods during different periods of the mid-Holocene, which were influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon and Westerly jet, and the climate in the Hexi Corridor was generally arid during the late Holocene. During the period of ∼4300–3700 cal yr BP, increased humidity and cultural exchanges promoted the development of agriculture and animal husbandry at the western end of the Hexi Corridor, and the Siba culture flourished during this period. A brief humid period occurred in the eastern section of the Hexi Corridor during the period of ∼2500–2300 cal yr BP, providing the conditions for the development of animal husbandry in the Shajing culture. Our research suggests that there is a close correlation between humid climates and the flourishing of ancient cultures, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions.
全新世以来,气候变化对人类社会发展和文明进化的影响已得到学者们的广泛认同。晚全新世干旱时期,青藏高原东北缘河西走廊一带的泗坝文化和沙井文化十分兴盛。这种占领可能与短期潮湿气候密切相关;然而,河西走廊自全新世以来的气候变化模式及其对人类的影响尚不清楚。本文利用河西走廊3个湖泊断面,结合河西走廊周边地区的古气候记录、人畜骨骼的放射性碳测年和考古遗址的植物测年,探讨河西走廊人类活动与气候变化的关系。结果表明:全新世中期,受东亚夏季风和西风急流的影响,河西走廊东部和西部地区经历了不同时期的湿润期,而全新世晚期河西走廊气候总体为干旱期。在~ 4300-3700 cal yr BP期间,湿度的增加和文化交流促进了河西走廊西端农业和畜牧业的发展,泗坝文化在此期间蓬勃发展。河西走廊东段在~ 2500 ~ 2300 cal yr BP期间出现了短暂的湿润期,为沙井文化畜牧业的发展提供了条件。我们的研究表明,潮湿的气候和古代文化的繁荣之间有着密切的联系,特别是在干旱和半干旱地区。
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引用次数: 0
Inception of anthropogenic activities and palaeoclimatic reconstruction during the Late Holocene from a high-altitude region, Western Himalaya, India: Palynological perspective 印度西喜马拉雅高海拔地区晚全新世人类活动开始与古气候重建:孢粉学视角
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100526
Amit Kumar Mishra , Ruchika Bajpai Mohanty , Ratan Kar
Palynological analyses of surface soil and sub-surface sediments were undertaken from Chopta-Tungnath, Uttarakhand State, India, to decipher the Late Holocene climatic changes, along with the inception, intensification and impact of anthropogenic activities in this high-altitude Himalayan region. The study area is characterised by mixed-temperate forests and alpine meadows. The development of modern palynological analogues has been done by the surface soil samples that were collected along an altitudinal transect (2700–3680 m), encompassing three distinct vegetation zones: mixed-temperate forests, tree-line vegetation, and alpine-scrub and meadows. The modern analogues were primarily generated to interpret the pollen-vegetation relationship and are compatible with the sub-surface fossil pollen records. Sub-surface sampling was done from a trial trench (105 cm), dug in the zone of mixed-temperate forests. Based on the radiocarbon dates (14C), climate fluctuations over the last 5070 years have been inferred through variations in the ratio of arboreal to non-arboreal pollen (AP/NAP), along with the subtle variations in the frequencies of temperate broad-leaved taxa. Besides, deducing the Late Holocene climatic changes, the palynological assemblages were also used to record the anthropogenic activities in the region. Around 850 yr BP, the evidence of human impact is manifested by the declining trend in the pollen frequencies of Quercus and Rhododendron, which indicate the degradation of these two arboreal components of the forest. There is a corresponding spike of Asteroideae, Cichorioideae and ruderal pollen, which are related to human activities. The increasing frequencies of coprophilous (dung-loving) fungi in the palynological assemblages of the sub-surface sediments, around 900 yr BP, provide further evidence towards the introduction of grazers in the area.
对印度北阿坎德邦(Uttarakhand) Chopta-Tungnath地区表层土壤和次表层沉积物进行孢粉学分析,以揭示该地区晚全新世的气候变化,以及人类活动的开始、加剧和影响。研究区域的特点是混合温带森林和高山草甸。现代孢粉学类似物的发展是通过沿海拔样带(2700-3680 m)收集的表层土壤样本完成的,包括三个不同的植被带:混合温带森林,树线植被,高山灌丛和草甸。现代类似物的产生主要是为了解释花粉与植被的关系,并与地下化石花粉记录相一致。地下采样是在混合温带森林区挖的一条试验沟(105 cm)进行的。基于放射性碳测年(14C),通过树木花粉与非树木花粉的比值(AP/NAP)的变化,以及温带阔叶分类群频率的细微变化,推断了过去5070年的气候波动。此外,孢粉组合还用于推断晚全新世的气候变化,记录了该地区的人类活动。在850 yr BP左右,人类影响的证据表现为栎科和杜鹃花的花粉频率呈下降趋势,这表明森林中这两种乔木成分的退化。与之相对应的菊科、菊科和菊科花粉均有穗状分布,与人类活动有关。大约900 年BP的次表层沉积物孢粉组合中粪菌(粪菌)的频率增加,为该地区引入食草动物提供了进一步的证据。
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Anthropocene
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