Fueling the fires – An exploration of the drivers and the scope for management of European wildfire risk under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.crm.2024.100638
Eva Preinfalk , John Handmer
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Abstract

As socio-natural phenomena, wildfires are exacerbated by climate change and socioeconomic dynamics. However, the role of socioeconomic uncertainty in shaping future wildfire risk and management remains largely neglected. Building on the notion that risk emerges at the intersection of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, we conduct an integrative literature review to identify the most significant socioeconomic drivers of wildfire risk in the European geographical and institutional context and bring this together with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) perspectives on plausible socioeconomic dynamics. To our knowledge, this is the first study to bridge the gap between wildfire research and socioeconomic scenarios to establish a conceptual understanding of future wildfire risk. The resulting wildfire risk scenario space has two main applications: (i) it acts as a qualitative navigator for factoring socioeconomic uncertainty in model-based wildfire risk assessments, and (ii) it sets the boundary conditions for evaluating the feasibility of management strategies. Sustainable land use practices and profitable agricultural value chains can reduce future wildfire risk (e.g. SSP1), whereas land degradation (e.g. SSP4), and socioeconomic disparities (e.g. SSP3) may increase it. As a result, challenges to future wildfire risk management differ significantly across scenarios, leading to paradoxical situations. In scenarios where vulnerability reduction has significant potential to lower risk, socioeconomic challenges reduce the feasibility of implementing the necessary measures to achieve risk reduction. Similar dilemmas may arise in the context of hazard and exposure. By considering multiple plausible futures, this paper emphasizes the importance of accounting for socioeconomic dynamics in shaping wildfire risk and keeping the design of risk management strategies open and flexible in the face of changing circumstances.

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火上浇油--探讨共同社会经济路径下欧洲野火风险的驱动因素和管理范围
作为一种社会自然现象,野火因气候变化和社会经济动态而加剧。然而,社会经济的不确定性在影响未来野火风险和管理方面的作用在很大程度上仍被忽视。基于风险出现在危险、暴露和脆弱性的交叉点这一概念,我们进行了一次综合文献回顾,以确定欧洲地理和制度背景下野火风险最重要的社会经济驱动因素,并将其与 "共享社会经济路径"(SSP)观点结合在一起,探讨合理的社会经济动态。据我们所知,这是第一项弥合野火研究与社会经济情景之间差距的研究,旨在建立对未来野火风险的概念性理解。由此产生的野火风险情景空间有两大用途:(i) 作为定性导航器,在基于模型的野火风险评估中考虑社会经济的不确定性;(ii) 为评估管理策略的可行性设定边界条件。可持续的土地利用方式和有利可图的农业价值链可降低未来的野火风险(如 SSP1),而土地退化(如 SSP4)和社会经济差异(如 SSP3)则可能增加野火风险。因此,未来野火风险管理所面临的挑战在不同的情景下会有很大的不同,从而导致矛盾的局面。在降低脆弱性具有降低风险的巨大潜力的情景中,社会经济挑战降低了实施必要措施以实现降低风险的可行性。在危险和风险暴露的情况下,也会出现类似的困境。通过考虑多种似是而非的未来,本文强调了考虑社会经济动态对野火风险影响的重要性,以及在面对不断变化的环境时保持风险管理战略设计的开放性和灵活性的重要性。
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来源期刊
Climate Risk Management
Climate Risk Management Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
8.20
自引率
4.50%
发文量
76
审稿时长
30 weeks
期刊介绍: Climate Risk Management publishes original scientific contributions, state-of-the-art reviews and reports of practical experience on the use of knowledge and information regarding the consequences of climate variability and climate change in decision and policy making on climate change responses from the near- to long-term. The concept of climate risk management refers to activities and methods that are used by individuals, organizations, and institutions to facilitate climate-resilient decision-making. Its objective is to promote sustainable development by maximizing the beneficial impacts of climate change responses and minimizing negative impacts across the full spectrum of geographies and sectors that are potentially affected by the changing climate.
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