Predicting potential invasion risks of Leucaena leucocephala (Lam.) de Wit in the arid area of Saudi Arabia

IF 2.7 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Journal of Arid Land Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI:10.1007/s40333-024-0020-4
Haq S. Marifatul, Darwish Mohammed, Waheed Muhammad, Kumar Manoj, Siddiqui H. Manzer, Bussmann W. Rainer
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Abstract

The presence of invasive plant species poses a substantial ecological impact, thus comprehensive evaluation of their potential range and risk under the influence of climate change is necessary. This study uses maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to forecast the likelihood of Leucaena leucocephala (Lam.) de Wit invasion in Saudi Arabia under present and future climate change scenarios. Utilizing the MaxEnt modeling, we integrated climatic and soil data to predict habitat suitability for the invasive species. We conducted a detailed analysis of the distribution patterns of the species, using climate variables and ecological factors. We focused on the important influence of temperature seasonality, temperature annual range, and precipitation seasonality. The distribution modeling used robust measures of area under the curve (AUC) and receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves, to map the invasion extent, which has a high level of accuracy in identifying appropriate habitats. The complex interaction that influenced the invasion of L. leucocephala was highlighted by the environmental parameters using Jackknife test. Presently, the actual geographic area where L. leucocephala was found in Saudi Arabia was considerably smaller than the theoretical maximum range, suggesting that it had the capacity to expand further. The MaxEnt model exhibited excellent prediction accuracy and produced reliable results based on the data from the ROC curve. Precipitation and temperature were the primary factors influencing the potential distribution of L. leucocephala. Currently, an estimated area of 216,342 km2 in Saudi Arabia was at a high probability of invasion by L. leucocephala. We investigated the potential for increased invasion hazards in the future due to climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 245 and 585). The analysis of key climatic variables, including temperature seasonality and annual range, along with soil properties such as clay composition and nitrogen content, unveiled their substantial influence on the distribution dynamic of L. leucocephala. Our findings indicated a significant expansion of high risk zones. High-risk zones for L. leucocephala invasion in the current climate conditions had notable expansions projected under future climate scenarios, particularly evident in southern Makkah, Al Bahah, Madina, and Asir areas. The results, backed by thorough spatial studies, emphasize the need to reduce the possible ecological impacts of climate change on the spread of L. leucocephala. Moreover, the study provides valuable strategic insights for the management of invasion, highlighting the intricate relationship between climate change, habitat appropriateness, and the risks associated with invasive species. Proactive techniques are suggested to avoid and manage the spread of L. leucocephala, considering its high potential for future spread. This study enhances the overall comprehension of the dynamics of invasive species by combining modeling techniques with ecological knowledge. It also provides valuable information for decision-making to implement efficient conservation and management strategies in response to changing environmental conditions.

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预测沙特阿拉伯干旱地区 Leucaena leucocephala (Lam.) de Wit 的潜在入侵风险
入侵植物物种的存在会对生态环境造成严重影响,因此有必要对其在气候变化影响下的潜在分布范围和风险进行全面评估。本研究利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型预测了在目前和未来的气候变化情况下,沙特境内 Leucaena leucocephala (Lam.) de Wit 入侵的可能性。利用 MaxEnt 模型,我们整合了气候和土壤数据,以预测入侵物种的栖息地适宜性。我们利用气候变量和生态因素对该物种的分布模式进行了详细分析。我们重点分析了温度季节性、温度年变化范围和降水季节性的重要影响。分布建模采用了稳健的曲线下面积(AUC)和接收器-操作者特征曲线(ROC)来绘制入侵范围图,这在识别适当的栖息地方面具有很高的准确性。利用杰克刀检验法,突出了环境参数对白千层入侵的复杂交互影响。目前,沙特阿拉伯境内发现白花前胡的实际地域范围大大小于理论上的最大范围,这表明白花前胡有能力进一步扩大。根据 ROC 曲线的数据,MaxEnt 模型表现出了极高的预测准确性,并得出了可靠的结果。降水量和温度是影响白蜡树潜在分布的主要因素。目前,沙特阿拉伯估计有 216,342 平方公里的地区极有可能受到白眉蛙的入侵。我们调查了未来气候变化情景(共享社会经济路径(SSP)245 和 585)导致入侵危害增加的可能性。对主要气候变量(包括温度季节性和年变化范围)以及土壤特性(如粘土成分和氮含量)的分析揭示了它们对白千层草分布动态的重大影响。我们的研究结果表明,高风险区明显扩大。在目前的气候条件下,白蜡树入侵的高风险区在未来的气候条件下预计会明显扩大,这在麦加南部、巴哈、麦地那和阿西尔地区尤为明显。在全面的空间研究支持下,研究结果强调了减少气候变化对白千层可能造成的生态影响的必要性。此外,研究还为入侵管理提供了宝贵的战略见解,强调了气候变化、栖息地适宜性和入侵物种相关风险之间错综复杂的关系。考虑到白花前胡未来的高扩散潜力,研究建议采用积极的技术来避免和管理白花前胡的扩散。这项研究通过将建模技术与生态知识相结合,提高了对入侵物种动态的整体理解。它还为针对不断变化的环境条件实施有效的保护和管理策略提供了宝贵的决策信息。
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来源期刊
Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
6.70%
发文量
768
审稿时长
3.2 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Arid Land is an international peer-reviewed journal co-sponsored by Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Science Press. It aims to meet the needs of researchers, students and practitioners in sustainable development and eco-environmental management, focusing on the arid and semi-arid lands in Central Asia and the world at large. The Journal covers such topics as the dynamics of natural resources (including water, soil and land, organism and climate), the security and sustainable development of natural resources, and the environment and the ecology in arid and semi-arid lands, especially in Central Asia. Coverage also includes interactions between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere, and the relationship between these natural processes and human activities. Also discussed are patterns of geography, ecology and environment; ecological improvement and environmental protection; and regional responses and feedback mechanisms to global change. The Journal of Arid Land also presents reviews, brief communications, trends and book reviews of work on these topics.
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