An Interpretable Multi-Model Machine Learning Approach for Spatial Mapping of Deep-Sea Polymetallic Nodule Occurrences

Abstract

High-resolution mapping of deep-sea polymetallic nodules is needed (a) to understand the reasons behind their patchy distribution, (b) to associate nodule coverage with benthic fauna occurrences, and (c) to enable an accurate resource estimation and mining path planning. This study used an autonomous underwater vehicle to map 37 km² of a geomorphologically complex site in the Eastern Clarion–Clipperton Fracture Zone. A multibeam echosounder system (MBES) at 400 kHz and a side scan sonar at 230 kHz were used to investigate the nodule backscatter response. More than 30,000 seafloor images were analyzed to obtain the nodule coverage and train five machine learning (ML) algorithms: generalized linear models, generalized additive models, support vector machines, random forests (RFs) and neural networks (NNs). All models ML yielded similar maps of nodule coverage with differences occurring in the range of predicted values, particularly at parts with irregular topography. RFs had the best fit and NNs had the worst spatial transferability. Attention was given to the interpretability of model outputs using variable importance ranking across all models, partial dependence plots and domain knowledge. The nodule coverage is higher on relatively flat seafloor ( < 3°) with eastward-facing slopes. The most important predictor was the MBES backscatter, particularly from incident angles between 25 and 55°. Bathymetry, slope, and slope orientation were important geomorphological predictors. For the first time, at a water depth of 4500 m, orthophoto-mosaics and image-derived digital elevation models with 2-mm and 5-mm spatial resolutions supported the geomorphological analysis, interpretation of polymetallic nodules occurrences, and backscatter response.