{"title":"Wages and Inflation in the Euro Area","authors":"Nektarios A Michail, Kyriaki G Louca","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifae014","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the relationship between the four main inflation components (services, NEIG, energy, and food) and wages in the euro area. Using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model for the 2002q1–2021q4 period, we find that wages positively respond to shocks in services inflation, energy inflation and GDP growth, with the first being the largest. In addition, services inflation is affected by all other inflation categories. The results are in line with the inflation path since 2022, following the food and energy price surges. Implications for policy include a feedback loop between wages and services inflation that lasts at least a year, with a possible reinforcement effect stemming from inflation expectations. Similar to US evidence, we also find that the unemployment rate does not affect wage developments in a Phillips curve setup. (JEL codes: J30, E24, E31)","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cesifo Economic Studies","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifae014","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We investigate the relationship between the four main inflation components (services, NEIG, energy, and food) and wages in the euro area. Using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model for the 2002q1–2021q4 period, we find that wages positively respond to shocks in services inflation, energy inflation and GDP growth, with the first being the largest. In addition, services inflation is affected by all other inflation categories. The results are in line with the inflation path since 2022, following the food and energy price surges. Implications for policy include a feedback loop between wages and services inflation that lasts at least a year, with a possible reinforcement effect stemming from inflation expectations. Similar to US evidence, we also find that the unemployment rate does not affect wage developments in a Phillips curve setup. (JEL codes: J30, E24, E31)
期刊介绍：
CESifo Economic Studies publishes provocative, high-quality papers in economics, with a particular focus on policy issues. Papers by leading academics are written for a wide and global audience, including those in government, business, and academia. The journal combines theory and empirical research in a style accessible to economists across all specialisations.
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