We investigate whether and how partisan politics played a role in the Netherlands. To do so, we review existing literature and prepare descriptive statistics from recent datasets. We focus on two related questions: (i) Are there effects of partisan politics in the Netherlands in the past 60 years? (ii) Do developments in party and voter behavior influence the relevance of partisan influences for Dutch governance? As we find that there is only limited existing research on partisan politics in the Dutch context, we empirically explore the relationship between government ideology and typical, country-level partisan outcome variables. We find mixed evidence for partisan policymaking in the Netherlands. Some findings are in line with partisan theory, some are counter-indicative. Exploring the role of party and voter movements, we document a shifting political landscape in which the potential for traditional partisan influences has become smaller.
{"title":"Partisan Influences in Dutch Politics","authors":"Maite D Laméris, Tobias Grohmann","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifae017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifae017","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate whether and how partisan politics played a role in the Netherlands. To do so, we review existing literature and prepare descriptive statistics from recent datasets. We focus on two related questions: (i) Are there effects of partisan politics in the Netherlands in the past 60 years? (ii) Do developments in party and voter behavior influence the relevance of partisan influences for Dutch governance? As we find that there is only limited existing research on partisan politics in the Dutch context, we empirically explore the relationship between government ideology and typical, country-level partisan outcome variables. We find mixed evidence for partisan policymaking in the Netherlands. Some findings are in line with partisan theory, some are counter-indicative. Exploring the role of party and voter movements, we document a shifting political landscape in which the potential for traditional partisan influences has become smaller.","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142216420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Luís Filipe Martins, Luís Clemente-Casinhas, Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes
This work estimates the relationship between Central Bank Independence (CBI) and economic growth in the context of monetary unions, using dynamic panel models. We use two measures of CBI: the Legal CBI index and the irregular turnover rate. When an irregular turnover of the Central Bank Governor occurs, it harms growth for countries outside monetary unions. On the contrary, the Legal CBI index is a positive factor for growth, although only regarding countries belonging to monetary unions. The limitations on lending to the government is the most important component of the Legal CBI, which explains this result. Additionally, we analyse sub-samples taking into account the level of income, the number of crises, the existence of quantitative easing policies, and different time windows. Interestingly, 1990–2013 was a harmful period for growth for the entire sample but benign for countries that belong to monetary unions. Moreover, when countries are in a crisis they benefit from being a member of a monetary union with an independent central bank. Results seem to point to the conclusion that Legal CBI in a monetary union has the potential to increase economic growth rates. (JEL codes: C23, E58, and O43)
{"title":"Uncovering the (Possible) Relationship between Central Bank Independence and Economic Growth in the Context of Monetary Unions","authors":"Luís Filipe Martins, Luís Clemente-Casinhas, Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifae012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifae012","url":null,"abstract":"This work estimates the relationship between Central Bank Independence (CBI) and economic growth in the context of monetary unions, using dynamic panel models. We use two measures of CBI: the Legal CBI index and the irregular turnover rate. When an irregular turnover of the Central Bank Governor occurs, it harms growth for countries outside monetary unions. On the contrary, the Legal CBI index is a positive factor for growth, although only regarding countries belonging to monetary unions. The limitations on lending to the government is the most important component of the Legal CBI, which explains this result. Additionally, we analyse sub-samples taking into account the level of income, the number of crises, the existence of quantitative easing policies, and different time windows. Interestingly, 1990–2013 was a harmful period for growth for the entire sample but benign for countries that belong to monetary unions. Moreover, when countries are in a crisis they benefit from being a member of a monetary union with an independent central bank. Results seem to point to the conclusion that Legal CBI in a monetary union has the potential to increase economic growth rates. (JEL codes: C23, E58, and O43)","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141933521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate the relationship between the four main inflation components (services, NEIG, energy, and food) and wages in the euro area. Using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model for the 2002q1–2021q4 period, we find that wages positively respond to shocks in services inflation, energy inflation and GDP growth, with the first being the largest. In addition, services inflation is affected by all other inflation categories. The results are in line with the inflation path since 2022, following the food and energy price surges. Implications for policy include a feedback loop between wages and services inflation that lasts at least a year, with a possible reinforcement effect stemming from inflation expectations. Similar to US evidence, we also find that the unemployment rate does not affect wage developments in a Phillips curve setup. (JEL codes: J30, E24, E31)
我们研究了欧元区四种主要通胀成分（服务业、NEIG、能源和食品）与工资之间的关系。利用 2002 年第一季度至 2021 年第四季度的面板向量自回归模型，我们发现工资对服务业通胀、能源通胀和 GDP 增长的冲击做出了积极反应，其中第一个冲击最大。此外，服务业通胀受到所有其他通胀类别的影响。结果与 2022 年以来食品和能源价格飙升后的通胀路径一致。对政策的影响包括工资和服务通胀之间的反馈循环至少持续一年，通胀预期可能产生强化效应。与美国的证据相似，我们还发现，在菲利普斯曲线设置中，失业率并不影响工资的发展。(JEL 代码：J30、E24、E31）
{"title":"Wages and Inflation in the Euro Area","authors":"Nektarios A Michail, Kyriaki G Louca","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifae014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifae014","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the relationship between the four main inflation components (services, NEIG, energy, and food) and wages in the euro area. Using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model for the 2002q1–2021q4 period, we find that wages positively respond to shocks in services inflation, energy inflation and GDP growth, with the first being the largest. In addition, services inflation is affected by all other inflation categories. The results are in line with the inflation path since 2022, following the food and energy price surges. Implications for policy include a feedback loop between wages and services inflation that lasts at least a year, with a possible reinforcement effect stemming from inflation expectations. Similar to US evidence, we also find that the unemployment rate does not affect wage developments in a Phillips curve setup. (JEL codes: J30, E24, E31)","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141933520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper reviews the literature on partisan politics in Portugal at the national and sub-national levels. Starting with a description of the institutional setting, main parties and electoral results, the paper then delves into how partisanship matters for the policies implemented by incumbent governments. The available evidence indicates clear differences in several policy areas, such as the labour market, welfare, health, education, and gender issues, with Portuguese left- and right-wing governments acting in line with their ideological agendas. Voter behaviour and the emergence of the populist far-right in the Portuguese parliament are also analysed. (JEL codes: D04, D7, H4, and H7)
{"title":"Partisan Politics in Portugal","authors":"F. J. Veiga, L. Veiga, Beatriz Costa Azevedo","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifae005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifae005","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper reviews the literature on partisan politics in Portugal at the national and sub-national levels. Starting with a description of the institutional setting, main parties and electoral results, the paper then delves into how partisanship matters for the policies implemented by incumbent governments. The available evidence indicates clear differences in several policy areas, such as the labour market, welfare, health, education, and gender issues, with Portuguese left- and right-wing governments acting in line with their ideological agendas. Voter behaviour and the emergence of the populist far-right in the Portuguese parliament are also analysed. (JEL codes: D04, D7, H4, and H7)","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141643922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use data from the European working condition survey to describe the frequency of housework activities by men and women before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in European countries. We find that, although women continue to spend more time than men in housework activities, men increase housework activities after the pandemic and the gender gaps narrow. The result is driven by countries initially characterized by larger gender gaps in housework activities.
{"title":"Gender Gaps in Housework Activities in Europe before and after COVID-19","authors":"Marta Angelici, Giulia Savio","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifae008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifae008","url":null,"abstract":"We use data from the European working condition survey to describe the frequency of housework activities by men and women before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in European countries. We find that, although women continue to spend more time than men in housework activities, men increase housework activities after the pandemic and the gender gaps narrow. The result is driven by countries initially characterized by larger gender gaps in housework activities.","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141572835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Party politics in Austria has two distinctive features: institutionalized power sharing between the two main parties, known as Proporz, and a longstanding tradition of far-right populism. I examine whether these two phenomena are connected: Does reduced political competition correlate with vote shares for the far right? The results do not support the hypothesis that populist parties are stronger in places with reduced political competition and with Proporz institutions. Instead, the results show that Austrian populism has very deep historical roots. Historical party preferences in the 1930s explain a substantial part of the variation in far-right populist vote shares across Austrian regions today. Populism may also have economic consequences. Descriptive evidence shows that economic growth was 2 percentage points lower in Austria when far-right populists were in the national government, whereas no partisan differences can be found for the two main parties.
{"title":"Party Politics in Austria: From Proporz to Populism?","authors":"Felix Roesel","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifae009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifae009","url":null,"abstract":"Party politics in Austria has two distinctive features: institutionalized power sharing between the two main parties, known as Proporz, and a longstanding tradition of far-right populism. I examine whether these two phenomena are connected: Does reduced political competition correlate with vote shares for the far right? The results do not support the hypothesis that populist parties are stronger in places with reduced political competition and with Proporz institutions. Instead, the results show that Austrian populism has very deep historical roots. Historical party preferences in the 1930s explain a substantial part of the variation in far-right populist vote shares across Austrian regions today. Populism may also have economic consequences. Descriptive evidence shows that economic growth was 2 percentage points lower in Austria when far-right populists were in the national government, whereas no partisan differences can be found for the two main parties.","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141572834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mustafa Özer, Jan Fidrmuc, Emmanouil Mentzakis, Özcan Özkan
Does education make people more or less religious? The previous literature offers mixed findings on the relationship between education and religiosity. This may be due to endogeneity bias: education and religiosity can be caused by a third variable such as culture or upbringing. We instrument education by exposure to the 1997 education reform in Turkey which increased mandatory schooling from 5 to 8 years. The schooling reform increased the probability that young girls would complete 8 years of schooling and report lower religiosity later in life. The reform apparently did not influence such outcomes for boys. These effects are observed primarily in females growing up in strongly religious or poor areas.
{"title":"Does Education Affect Religiosity? Causal Evidence from a Conservative Emerging Economy","authors":"Mustafa Özer, Jan Fidrmuc, Emmanouil Mentzakis, Özcan Özkan","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifae003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifae003","url":null,"abstract":"Does education make people more or less religious? The previous literature offers mixed findings on the relationship between education and religiosity. This may be due to endogeneity bias: education and religiosity can be caused by a third variable such as culture or upbringing. We instrument education by exposure to the 1997 education reform in Turkey which increased mandatory schooling from 5 to 8 years. The schooling reform increased the probability that young girls would complete 8 years of schooling and report lower religiosity later in life. The reform apparently did not influence such outcomes for boys. These effects are observed primarily in females growing up in strongly religious or poor areas.","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140199258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
When firms have to employ a high-ability worker at a managerial position, sometimes they have to poach a promoted worker from another firm without observing that worker’s ability. We discuss the implications of this practice for the promotion signaling framework. Our model shows the turnover of workers and the wages paid at such an economy, and how they depend on the worker’s own ability and the ability of other workers in the firm. We show that due to the winner’s curse, firms make a non-positive expected profit from poaching a worker. In that case, non-promoted workers “subsidize” the wage paid to their manager. The need to hire managers without observing their ability is a new barrier to entry for firms (JEL codes: M51, J31).
{"title":"Equilibrium Poaching in Labor Markets","authors":"Ori Zax, Yanay Farja","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifae001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifae001","url":null,"abstract":"When firms have to employ a high-ability worker at a managerial position, sometimes they have to poach a promoted worker from another firm without observing that worker’s ability. We discuss the implications of this practice for the promotion signaling framework. Our model shows the turnover of workers and the wages paid at such an economy, and how they depend on the worker’s own ability and the ability of other workers in the firm. We show that due to the winner’s curse, firms make a non-positive expected profit from poaching a worker. In that case, non-promoted workers “subsidize” the wage paid to their manager. The need to hire managers without observing their ability is a new barrier to entry for firms (JEL codes: M51, J31).","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140019836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Svend E Hougaard Jensen, Thorsteinn Sigurdur Sveinsson, Gylfi Zoega
Differences in life expectancy across socioeconomic groups create a serious problem of inequality within the public part of the pension system. This article considers two actuarially sound ways of addressing longevity inequality. The first is to allow low life-expectancy workers to retire earlier and delay the retirement of the high life-expectancy workers so that the two groups receive the same amount, equal to the expected discounted value of future pension benefits received by the average worker under the current system. The second, and more radical, is to delegate to occupational pension funds the task of paying out the public pension benefits to each retiree, based on a lump-sum transfer from the government to the pension funds of an amount for each retiree equivalent to the payout in the first scenario. (JEL codes: E21 and E24)
{"title":"Addressing Longevity Inequality: How Retirement Age Differentiation Can Be Implemented","authors":"Svend E Hougaard Jensen, Thorsteinn Sigurdur Sveinsson, Gylfi Zoega","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifad012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifad012","url":null,"abstract":"Differences in life expectancy across socioeconomic groups create a serious problem of inequality within the public part of the pension system. This article considers two actuarially sound ways of addressing longevity inequality. The first is to allow low life-expectancy workers to retire earlier and delay the retirement of the high life-expectancy workers so that the two groups receive the same amount, equal to the expected discounted value of future pension benefits received by the average worker under the current system. The second, and more radical, is to delegate to occupational pension funds the task of paying out the public pension benefits to each retiree, based on a lump-sum transfer from the government to the pension funds of an amount for each retiree equivalent to the payout in the first scenario. (JEL codes: E21 and E24)","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139577910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Countries have employed a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to curtail the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the success of individual measures in reducing the number of infections remains controversial. This article exploits a panel dataset of 181 countries to estimate the effects of 12 NPIs on the spread of the disease in 2020. The employed fixed effects estimation greatly reduces endogeneity concerns. Estimated coefficients imply that while almost all measures had a dampening effect on the reproduction rate of the virus, school closings and restrictions on gatherings were most effective. The obligation to wear face masks was more effective during the second wave. Measures requiring significant resources, such as testing, were more effective in developed countries. (JEL codes: C13, C23, D04, and I18)
{"title":"A Lockdown a Day Keeps the Doctor Away: The Global Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in Mitigating the Covid-19 Pandemic","authors":"Anthonin Levelu, Alexander Sandkamp","doi":"10.1093/cesifo/ifad013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifad013","url":null,"abstract":"Countries have employed a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to curtail the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the success of individual measures in reducing the number of infections remains controversial. This article exploits a panel dataset of 181 countries to estimate the effects of 12 NPIs on the spread of the disease in 2020. The employed fixed effects estimation greatly reduces endogeneity concerns. Estimated coefficients imply that while almost all measures had a dampening effect on the reproduction rate of the virus, school closings and restrictions on gatherings were most effective. The obligation to wear face masks was more effective during the second wave. Measures requiring significant resources, such as testing, were more effective in developed countries. (JEL codes: C13, C23, D04, and I18)","PeriodicalId":51748,"journal":{"name":"Cesifo Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139373174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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