{"title":"Household assets and business cycle fluctuations","authors":"Shogo Miura","doi":"10.1111/boer.12469","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that an increase in the ratio of household assets to gross domestic product (GDP) predicts higher GDP growth in the short term, but lower growth in the long term. It is also associated with lower consumption, investment, and employment rates in the future. The result is robust to controlling for various economic indicators including credit spreads, household debt to GDP ratio, and leverage ratio. Finally, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that an increase in the interest rate is associated with a decrease in the household assets to GDP ratio, in contrast to the findings of Galí and Gambetti (2015, <jats:italic>American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics</jats:italic>, <jats:italic>7</jats:italic>(1), 233–257). This appears to support the conventional view of monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Bulletin of Economic Research","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12469","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper shows that an increase in the ratio of household assets to gross domestic product (GDP) predicts higher GDP growth in the short term, but lower growth in the long term. It is also associated with lower consumption, investment, and employment rates in the future. The result is robust to controlling for various economic indicators including credit spreads, household debt to GDP ratio, and leverage ratio. Finally, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that an increase in the interest rate is associated with a decrease in the household assets to GDP ratio, in contrast to the findings of Galí and Gambetti (2015, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 233–257). This appears to support the conventional view of monetary policy.
本文表明，家庭资产与国内生产总值（GDP）之比的增加可预测短期内较高的 GDP 增长率，但长期增长率较低。它还与未来较低的消费、投资和就业率有关。这一结果在控制各种经济指标（包括信贷利差、家庭债务与国内生产总值之比以及杠杆率）后是稳健的。最后，我们估计了一个结构性向量自回归模型，发现利率上升与家庭资产与GDP比率下降相关，这与Galí和Gambetti（2015年，《美国经济学报》：宏观经济学》，7（1），233-257）的结论相反。这似乎支持了传统的货币政策观点。
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