Trends in socioeconomic disparities in urban heat exposure and adaptation options in mid-sized U.S. cities

Abstract

There is ample evidence that environmental justice communities experience high levels of extreme heat. However, it is unknown how disparities in urban heat exposure and adaptation options change over time. This study investigates socioeconomic disparities over time in urban heat exposure and adaptation options in eight mid-sized Northeastern cities. We ask: How were socioeconomic factors associated with heat exposure and adaptation options over time? We analyzed disparities at the census block group level and census block level, respectively. At the census block group level, we ran spatial regression models between socioeconomic variables, including race, income, gender, and age, and heat exposure and adaptation variables, including land surface temperature, normalized different vegetation index (NDVI), tree cover, and air conditioning ownership rate. We found that: Low median household income is always associated with high LST and low NDVI from 1990 to 2020; Low percentages of females are always associated with high LST and low NDVI from 1990 to 2020. High percentages of POC are associated with high LST in 2010 and 2020, but not in 1990 and 2000; Low median household income and low percentages of elderly are associated with lower tree covers; High percentages of POC, low percentages of elderly, and low median household income are associated with lower AC rates. In analysis at the census block level by city, we found that disparities in urban heat exposure between predominantly POC and predominantly white communities increased in most cities during 1990–2020. Predominantly POC communities consistently have lower vegetation cover over time in most cities. Disparities in vegetation cover per unit area increased in most cities, whereas disparities in vegetation cover per capita decreased in most cities. Our findings of the trends in disparities in heat exposure and adaptation are useful for forecasting disparities in the future. These findings also suggest that interventions should prioritize cities with increasing disparities in heat exposure and adaptation.