Identification of climatic tipping points and transitions in Chinese loess grain-size records utilizing nonlinear time series analysis

Abstract

As one of the most important terrestrial sediments, Chinese loess provides valuable information on regional and global climatic and environmental changes and holds great potential for studying on nonlinear behaviors of the East Asian monsoon system. Utilizing objective and quantitative methods to identify tipping points and climate transitions in paleoclimatic records can help us understand the climatic change in the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). This study explores critical tipping points and nonlinear climate transitions within the CLP using the Chiloparts record, a comprehensive 2600-ka paleoclimate dataset. We pinpointed potential tipping points using recurrence quantification analysis and the augmented Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, ultimately leading to 15 critical tipping points. We argued that these 15 tipping points represent some of the most significant climatic changes recorded in the Chinese loess paleoclimate record. Employing recurrence quantification analysis, recurrence networks, and visibility graphs, we also identified several climate transitions and provided some nonlinear information, including the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) as well as the Mid-Brunhes Transition (MBT). We particularly highlight a significant climatic regime transition around 500 ka that may reflect a nonlinear response to variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our research also contributes to the understanding of the complex interplay between loess deposition, environmental change, and tectonic activity, emphasizing the need for further investigations to elucidate the mechanisms driving these transitions.