A transition from two-dimensional to three-dimensional liquid sloshing in a symmetric vessel under external periodic forcing is considered. The three-dimensional response is commonly associated with well-ordered swirling, although can exhibit also a chaotic behaviour. Such transition is well-known in the vicinity of the primary 1:1 resonance between the lowest eigenfrequency of the sloshing mass, and the frequency of the external force. The transition pattern, i.e., the dependence of the transition threshold on amplitude and frequency of the external forcing, demonstrates remarkable qualitative similarity for very different physical settings. This observation is illustrated by comparing the results of our own experiments concerning the sloshing in relatively soft cylindrical shell, to earlier results with rigid tanks of different geometry. The aforementioned similarity allows one to assume that this transition can be described by means of low-order phenomenological dynamical model with universal general structure. The parameters of such model should depend on the specific physical setting of the sloshing system. The suggested model comprises a two-dimensional damped nonlinear oscillator with unidirectional forcing. The transition to the swirling in the original sloshing system is associated with the loss of stability of the one-dimensional response in the reduced model. Analysis by means of a multiple-scale expansion allows mapping the transition threshold on the plane of parameters for given initial conditions. One reveals that in order to match the available numeric and experimental results; a polynomial model with combined softening and hardening is required. The results are verified by means of direct numeric simulations of the complete reduced-order model; additional response patterns are revealed.