Integrating Bayesian inference and neural ODEs for microgrids dynamics parameters estimation

Abstract

The integration of solar and wind energy sources in microgrids has witnessed significant growth, giving rise to distinct challenges due to their intermittent nature when it comes to achieving efficient microgrid control. However, estimating the parameters of the dynamic microgrid components facilitates capturing the complex and time-varying characteristics of renewable energy generation. This requires an accurate estimation of the parameters from the dynamic differential equations for effective modeling and control. In this research paper, we presented a novel methodology based on the integration of Bayesian inference and Neural ODEs. The Bayesian inference quantifies the uncertainty, and the Neural ODEs model the dynamic systems. By combining the strengths of both methods, we aimed to achieve a precise and robust parameter estimation of the dynamic microgrid components. The methodology is validated on a simulated microgrid that consists of a diesel generator, Solar PV array, double-fed induction generator, and a battery energy storage system. The results showed promised inferences estimation obtained from the parameter posterior distribution even in the presence of uncertainty. This can enhance our understanding of the dynamics of renewable energy systems and can contribute to the advancement of decision-making microgrid control strategies.