Assessment of Intermediate-Term Mortality Following Pancreatectomy for Cancer

Abstract

Background Pancreatic cancer remains highly lethal and resection represents the only chance for cure. Although patients are counseled regarding short-term (0-3 months) mortality, little is known about mortality 3-6 months (intermediate-term) following surgery. We assessed predictors of intermediate-term mortality, evaluated hospital-level variation, and developed a nomogram to predict intermediate-term mortality risk. Methods Patients undergoing pancreatic cancer resection were identified from the National Cancer Database (2010-2020). Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors of intermediate-term mortality and assessed differences between short-term and intermediate-term mortality. Multinomial regression grouped by intermediate-term mortality quartiles evaluated hospital-level variation. A neural network model was constructed to predict intermediate-term mortality risk. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results Of 45,297 patients, 3,974 (8.9%) died within 6-months of surgery of which 2,216 (5.1%) were intermediate-term. Intermediate-term mortality was associated with increasing T-category, positive nodes, lack of systemic therapy, and positive margins (all p < .05) compared with survival beyond 6-months. Compared with short-term, intermediate-term mortality was associated with treatment at high-volume hospitals, positive nodes, neoadjuvant systemic therapy, adjuvant radiotherapy, and positive margins (all p < .05). Median intermediate-term mortality rate per hospital was 4.5% (IQR 2.6-6.5). Highest quartile hospitals had decreased odds of treatment with neoadjuvant systemic therapy, neoadjuvant radiotherapy, and adjuvant radiotherapy (all p < .05). The neural network nomogram was highly accurate (Accuracy: 0.9499; AUC-ROC of 0.7531) in predicting individualized intermediate-term mortality risk. Conclusion Nearly 10% of patients undergoing pancreatectomy for cancer died within 6-months of which half occurred in the intermediate-term. These data have real-world implications to improve shared decision-making when discussing curative-intent pancreatectomy.