The effect of carbon quota allocation methods on maritime supply chain emission reduction

IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Transport Policy Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.08.011
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Abstract

In September 2020, the European Parliament decided to include the CO2 emitted on the all intra-European and 50% of extra-European voyages in the European Union Emission Trading System (EU-ETS) starting from 2022, in order to reduce the CO2 emission. With the implementation of EU-ETS, the maritime supply chain will inevitably be significantly affected. Different carbon quota allocations in ETS have different impact on the CO2 emission reduction, which motivates us to investigate the effect of different carbon quota allocations on maritime CO2 emission reduction. Therefore, this paper considers two carbon quota allocations: the historical total quantity method and the historical intensity method, and develops a game model for each method. Then, the equilibrium solutions of each game model are analyzed. With the help of the system dynamics and the software Vensim, numerical experiments are conducted to verify the properties obtained in the analysis of the equilibrium solutions. The experimental results indicate that 1) Green technology (GT) can effectively reduce carbon emissions. Based on long-term simulation results, the GT investments will be gradually offset by profiting from carbon quota trading. 2) Profits may vary with price, but the Historical Intensity method consistently achieves better carbon reduction effects or relatively higher profits. 3) The marginal profits of companies with similar historical intensity baselines are almost the same. This gives an advantage to companies who implement green technologies earlier, as they can quickly gain returns from GT.

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碳配额分配方法对海运供应链减排的影响
2020 年 9 月,欧洲议会决定从 2022 年起将所有欧洲内部航程和 50%欧洲外部航程排放的二氧化碳纳入欧盟排放交易体系(EU-ETS),以减少二氧化碳排放。随着 EU-ETS 的实施,海运供应链将不可避免地受到重大影响。ETS 中不同的碳配额分配对二氧化碳减排的影响不同,这促使我们研究不同碳配额分配对海运二氧化碳减排的影响。因此,本文考虑了两种碳配额分配方法:历史总量法和历史强度法,并分别建立了两种方法的博弈模型。然后,分析了每种博弈模型的均衡解。在系统动力学和软件 Vensim 的帮助下,进行了数值实验来验证均衡解分析中得到的特性。实验结果表明:1)绿色技术(GT)能有效减少碳排放。根据长期模拟结果,GT 投资将逐渐被碳配额交易的利润所抵消。2)利润可能随价格变化,但历史强度法始终能取得较好的碳减排效果或相对较高的利润。3) 历史强度基线相似的公司的边际利润几乎相同。这就为较早实施绿色技术的公司提供了优势,因为它们可以很快从 GT 中获得回报。
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来源期刊
Transport Policy
Transport Policy Multiple-
CiteScore
12.10
自引率
10.30%
发文量
282
期刊介绍: Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.
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