Future changes in precipitation and water availability over the Tibetan Plateau projected by CMIP6 models constrained by climate sensitivity

IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100537
{"title":"Future changes in precipitation and water availability over the Tibetan Plateau projected by CMIP6 models constrained by climate sensitivity","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100537","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) show diversity among existing studies, partly due to model uncertainty. How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive. Here, based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and the climatological precipitation performance, the authors constrain the CMIP6 (phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP. The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24, 0.25, and 0.45 mm d<sup>−1</sup> (5.9 %, 6.1 %, and 11.2 %) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014, respectively. The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) are 0.10, 0.09, and 0.22 mm d<sup>−1</sup> (5.7 %, 4.9 %, and 13.2 %), respectively. The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models, whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range, are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections. Spatially, there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP, while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E. The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6 °C–1.2 °C under all three scenarios during 2050–2099. This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.</p><p>摘要</p><p>青藏高原是气候变化敏感区, 可靠的气候预估对气候变化应对至关重要. 青藏高原夏季降水变化的预估结果在CMIP6气候模式间存在较大的不确定性, 原因部分地和这些模式对温室气体强迫的敏感度不同有关. 作者在对CMIP6模式性能进行评估基础上, 选择了具有较高气候态降水模拟技巧的模式用于预估研究, 并根据IPCC AR6估算的平衡态气候敏感度 (ECS) 的可能性范围, 对青藏高原夏季降水的中远期 (2050–2099) 变化进行约束. 结果表明, 在SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 和 SSP5–8.5情景下, 青藏高原夏季降水将分别增多0.24, 0.25 和 0.45 mm d<sup>−1</sup> (5.9 %, 6.1 %, 和 11.2 %), 水资源可用性 (P–E) 将分别增加0.10, 0.09和0.22 mm d<sup>−1</sup>(5.7 %, 4.9 % 和13.2 %) . 与约束预估相比, 高ECS模式预估的水文敏感度约为约束后的1.2–1.4倍, 升温幅度偏高0.6 °C–1.2 °C, 这二者共同导致高ECS模式预估的高原降水增幅约为约束预估的1.7倍. 本文指出气候敏感度是影响未来青藏高原水资源预估不确定性的重要来源, 同时基于IPCC AR6对ECS的最佳估算, 给出了高原夏季降水和水资源的最佳预估结果.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283424000862/pdfft?md5=68c7bec658cb012bffbe4f08b8df1040&pid=1-s2.0-S1674283424000862-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283424000862","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) show diversity among existing studies, partly due to model uncertainty. How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive. Here, based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and the climatological precipitation performance, the authors constrain the CMIP6 (phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP. The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24, 0.25, and 0.45 mm d−1 (5.9 %, 6.1 %, and 11.2 %) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014, respectively. The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) are 0.10, 0.09, and 0.22 mm d−1 (5.7 %, 4.9 %, and 13.2 %), respectively. The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models, whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range, are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections. Spatially, there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP, while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E. The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6 °C–1.2 °C under all three scenarios during 2050–2099. This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.

摘要

青藏高原是气候变化敏感区, 可靠的气候预估对气候变化应对至关重要. 青藏高原夏季降水变化的预估结果在CMIP6气候模式间存在较大的不确定性, 原因部分地和这些模式对温室气体强迫的敏感度不同有关. 作者在对CMIP6模式性能进行评估基础上, 选择了具有较高气候态降水模拟技巧的模式用于预估研究, 并根据IPCC AR6估算的平衡态气候敏感度 (ECS) 的可能性范围, 对青藏高原夏季降水的中远期 (2050–2099) 变化进行约束. 结果表明, 在SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 和 SSP5–8.5情景下, 青藏高原夏季降水将分别增多0.24, 0.25 和 0.45 mm d−1 (5.9 %, 6.1 %, 和 11.2 %), 水资源可用性 (P–E) 将分别增加0.10, 0.09和0.22 mm d−1(5.7 %, 4.9 % 和13.2 %) . 与约束预估相比, 高ECS模式预估的水文敏感度约为约束后的1.2–1.4倍, 升温幅度偏高0.6 °C–1.2 °C, 这二者共同导致高ECS模式预估的高原降水增幅约为约束预估的1.7倍. 本文指出气候敏感度是影响未来青藏高原水资源预估不确定性的重要来源, 同时基于IPCC AR6对ECS的最佳估算, 给出了高原夏季降水和水资源的最佳预估结果.

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
受气候敏感性制约的 CMIP6 模型预测的青藏高原降水量和可用水量的未来变化
对青藏高原降水量的预测在现有研究中表现出多样性,部分原因是模型的不确定性。如何进行可靠的预测仍无定论。在此,作者根据 IPCC 第六次评估报告评估的平衡气候敏感性(ECS)可能范围和气候学降水表现,对 CMIP6(耦合模式相互比较项目第 6 阶段)模式预测的青藏高原夏季降水量和可用水量进行了约束。在 SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5 的共享社会经济路径(SSP)情景下,2050-2099 年降水量变化的最佳估计值分别为 0.24、0.25 和 0.45 mm d-1(5.9%、6.1% 和 11.2%),而 1965-2014 年的降水量变化则分别为 0.24、0.25 和 0.45 mm d-1(5.9%、6.1% 和 11.2%)。以降水量减去蒸发量(P-E)计算的相应可用水量限制预测值分别为 0.10、0.09 和 0.22 mm d-1(5.7%、4.9% 和 13.2%)。高 ECS 模式的 ECS 值高于可能范围的上限,其预测的降水量和 P-E 的增加值是约束预测值的 1.7 倍。从空间上看,东部大陆坡的降水量和 P-E 增加较多,而西部地区的降水量差异相对较小,P-E 呈干燥趋势。在 2050-2099 年期间的所有三种情景下,水文灵敏度提高了约 1.2-1.4 倍,升温幅度增加了 0.6 ℃-1.2 ℃,因此,高 ECS 模式预测的热 带降雨量更多。这项研究强调,选择气候敏感性在可能范围内的气候模式,对于减少地下水降水量和水供应变化预测的不确定性至关重要。摘要青藏高原是气候变化敏感区,可靠的气候预估对气候变化应对至关重要。青藏高原夏季降水变化的预估结果在 cmip6 气候模式间存在较大的不确定性, 原因部分地和这些模式对温室气体强迫的敏感度不同有关。作者在对 cmip6 模式性能进行评估基础上, 选择了具有较高气候态降水模拟技巧的模式用于预估研究, 并根据 IPCC ar6 估算的平衡态气候敏感度 (ecs) 的可能性范围, 对青藏高原夏季降水的中远期 (2050-2099) 变化进行约束。结果表明,在 SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5 情景下,青藏高原夏季降水将分别增多 0.24, 0.25 和 0.45 mm d-1 (5.9 %, 6.1 %, 和 11.2 %), 水资源可用性 (P-E) 将分别增加 0.10, 0.09 和 0.22 mm d-1(5.7 %, 4.9 % 和 13.2 %) .与约束预估相比,高ecs模式预估的水文敏感度约为约束后的1.2-1.4倍, 升温幅度偏高0.6 °c-1.2 °c, 这二者共同导致高ecs模式预估的高原降水增幅约为约束预估的1.7倍。本文指出气候敏感度是影响未来青藏高原水资源预估不确定性的重要来源, 同时基于ipcc ar6对ecs的最佳估算, 给出了高原夏季降水和水资源的最佳预估结果.
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
8.70%
发文量
925
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊最新文献
Projected changes in extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau based on a set of RCM simulations Research progress on the water vapor channel within the Yarlung Zsangbo Grand Canyon, China Isolated deep convections over the Tibetan Plateau in the rainy season during 2001–2020 A study on the simulation of carbon and water fluxes of Dangxiong alpine meadow and its response to climate change Variation in the permafrost active layer over the Tibetan Plateau during 1980–2020
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1