Effects of 1.5 °C global warming on pavement climatic factors and performance

Abstract

This study compared 11 global climate models (GCMs) in assessing the variability of predicted pavement performance in 24 cities in the U.S. under 1.5 °C global warming and presented equations to estimate the impacts of global warming on pavement performance more simply. The results show a spread among GCMs regarding their predicted pavement deterioration with some models resulting in higher deterioration values than others. Thermal cracking, fatigue cracking, total rutting, and international roughness index (IRI) for the investigated 24 cities in the U.S. are found to increase by 124 ft/mi (23.11 m/km), 24 %, 4.6 %, and 1 % on average under 1.5 °C global warming comparatively to the baseline scenario (1991–2010). Regardless of GCMs, the results reveal southern U.S. cities are expected to suffer from greater changes in IRI and thermal cracking, while global warming induced rutting and fatigue cracking will be of greater concern in northern cities than in southern cities.