Optimised Annealed Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers

Abstract

Annealed Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are special cases of SMC samplers where the sequence of distributions can be embedded in a smooth path of distributions. Using this underlying path of distributions and a performance model based on the variance of the normalisation constant estimator, we systematically study dense schedule and large particle limits. From our theory and adaptive methods emerges a notion of global barrier capturing the inherent complexity of normalisation constant approximation under our performance model. We then turn the resulting approximations into surrogate objective functions of algorithm performance, and use them for methodology development. We obtain novel adaptive methodologies, Sequential SMC (SSMC) and Sequential AIS (SAIS) samplers, which address practical difficulties inherent in previous adaptive SMC methods. First, our SSMC algorithms are predictable: they produce a sequence of increasingly precise estimates at deterministic and known times. Second, SAIS, a special case of SSMC, enables schedule adaptation at a memory cost constant in the number of particles and require much less communication. Finally, these characteristics make SAIS highly efficient on GPUs. We develop an open-source, high-performance GPU implementation based on our methodology and demonstrate up to a hundred-fold speed improvement compared to state-of-the-art adaptive AIS methods.