A framework for incorporating behavioural change into individual‐level spatial epidemic models

Abstract

Epidemic trajectories can be substantially impacted by people modifying their behaviours in response to changes in their perceived risk of spreading or contracting the disease. However, most infectious disease models assume a stable population behaviour. We present a flexible new class of models, called behavioural change individual‐level models (BC‐ILMs), that incorporate both individual‐level covariate information and a data‐driven behavioural change effect. Focusing on spatial BC‐ILMs, we consider four “alarm” functions to model the effect of behavioural change as a function of infection prevalence over time. Through simulation studies, we find that if behavioural change is present, using an alarm function, even if specified incorrectly, will result in an improvement in posterior predictive performance over a model that assumes stable population behaviour. The methods are applied to data from the 2001 U.K. foot and mouth disease epidemic. The results show some evidence of a behavioural change effect, although it may not meaningfully impact model fit compared to a simpler spatial ILM in this dataset.