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Distributed learning for kernel mode–based regression 基于核模式回归的分布式学习
Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1002/cjs.11831
Tao Wang
We propose a parametric kernel mode–based regression built on the mode value, which provides robust and efficient estimators for datasets containing outliers or heavy‐tailed distributions. To address the challenges posed by massive datasets, we integrate this regression method with distributed statistical learning techniques, which greatly reduces the required amount of primary memory and simultaneously accommodates heterogeneity in the estimation process. By approximating the local kernel objective function with a least squares format, we are able to preserve compact statistics for each worker machine, facilitating the reconstruction of estimates for the entire dataset with minimal asymptotic approximation error. Additionally, we explore shrinkage estimation through local quadratic approximation, showcasing that the resulting estimator possesses the oracle property through an adaptive LASSO approach. The finite‐sample performance of the developed method is illustrated using simulations and real data analysis.
我们提出了一种基于模态值的参数核模态回归方法,它能为包含异常值或重尾分布的数据集提供稳健高效的估计值。为了应对海量数据集带来的挑战,我们将这种回归方法与分布式统计学习技术相结合,从而大大减少了所需的主内存量,并同时适应了估计过程中的异质性。通过用最小二乘法近似本地核目标函数,我们能够保留每台工作机的紧凑统计数据,从而以最小的渐近近似误差重建整个数据集的估计值。此外,我们还探索了通过局部二次逼近进行收缩估计的方法,并通过自适应 LASSO 方法展示了由此产生的估计器具有神谕特性。我们通过模拟和实际数据分析说明了所开发方法的有限样本性能。
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引用次数: 0
Efficient semiparametric estimation in two‐sample comparison via semisupervised learning 通过半监督学习进行双样本比较中的高效半参数估计
Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1002/cjs.11813
Tao Tan, Shuyi Zhang, Yong Zhou
We develop a general semisupervised framework for statistical inference in the two‐sample comparison setting. Although the supervised Mann–Whitney statistic outperforms many estimators in the two‐sample problem for nonnormally distributed responses, it is excessively inefficient because it ignores large amounts of unlabelled information. To borrow strength from unlabelled data, we propose a class of efficient and adaptive estimators that use two‐step semiparametric imputation. The probabilistic index model is adopted primarily to achieve dimension reduction for multivariate covariates, and a follow‐up reweighting step balances the contributions of labelled and unlabelled data. The asymptotic properties of our estimator are derived with variance comparison through a phase diagram. Efficiency theory shows our estimators achieve the semiparametric variance lower bound if the probabilistic index model is correctly specified, and are more efficient than their supervised counterpart when the model is not degenerate. The asymptotic variance is estimated through a two‐step perturbation resampling procedure. To gauge the finite sample performance, we conducted extensive simulation studies which verify the adaptive nature of our methods with respect to model misspecification. To illustrate the merits of our proposed method, we analyze a dataset concerning homelessness in Los Angeles.
我们为双样本比较环境下的统计推断开发了一个通用的半监督框架。虽然在非正态分布响应的双样本问题中,有监督的曼-惠特尼统计法优于许多估计法,但由于它忽略了大量未标记的信息,因此效率过低。为了从无标记数据中借力,我们提出了一类使用两步半参数估算的高效自适应估计器。采用概率指数模型主要是为了降低多元协变量的维度,而后续的重新加权步骤则是为了平衡标记数据和非标记数据的贡献。我们通过相图进行方差比较,得出了估计器的渐近特性。效率理论表明,如果正确指定了概率指数模型,我们的估计器就能达到半参数方差下限;如果模型没有退化,我们的估计器比监督估计器更有效率。渐近方差是通过两步扰动重采样程序估算出来的。为了衡量有限样本的性能,我们进行了广泛的模拟研究,验证了我们的方法对模型错误指定的适应性。为了说明我们提出的方法的优点,我们分析了一个有关洛杉矶无家可归者的数据集。
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引用次数: 0
A new copula regression model for hierarchical data 分层数据的新型共轭回归模型
Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1002/cjs.11830
Talagbe Gabin Akpo, Louis‐Paul Rivest
This article proposes multivariate copula models for hierarchical data. They account for two types of correlation: one is between variables measured on the same unit, and the other is a correlation between units in the same cluster. This model is used to carry out copula regression for hierarchical data that gives cluster‐specific prediction curves. In the simple case where a cluster contains two units and where two variables are measured on each one, the new model is constructed with a ‐vine. The proposed copula density is expressed in terms of three copula families. When the copula families and the marginal distributions are normal, the model is equivalent to a normal linear mixed model with random cluster‐specific intercepts. Methods to select the three copula families and to estimate their parameters are proposed. We perform Monte Carlo studies of the sampling properties of these estimators and of out‐of‐sample predictions. The new model is applied to a dataset on the marks of students in several schools.
本文提出了分层数据的多元 copula 模型。这些模型考虑了两类相关性:一类是在同一单位上测量的变量之间的相关性,另一类是同一聚类中的单位之间的相关性。该模型用于对分层数据进行协方差回归,从而给出特定群组的预测曲线。在一个群组包含两个单元,且每个单元测量两个变量的简单情况下,新模型是用-藤构建的。建议的 copula 密度用三个 copula 系来表示。当 copula 系和边际分布为正态分布时,模型等同于具有随机特定群组截距的正态线性混合模型。我们提出了选择三个 copula 系并估计其参数的方法。我们对这些估计器的抽样特性和样本外预测进行了蒙特卡罗研究。新模型被应用于几个学校的学生分数数据集。
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引用次数: 0
Fast and scalable inference for spatial extreme value models 快速、可扩展的空间极值模型推理
Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1002/cjs.11829
Meixi Chen, Reza Ramezan, Martin Lysy
The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a popular model for analyzing and forecasting extreme weather data. To increase prediction accuracy, spatial information is often pooled via a latent Gaussian process (GP) on the GEV parameters. Inference for GEV‐GP models is typically carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, or using approximate inference methods such as the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). However, MCMC becomes prohibitively slow as the number of spatial locations increases, whereas INLA is applicable in practice only to a limited subset of GEV‐GP models. In this article, we revisit the original Laplace approximation for fitting spatial GEV models. In combination with a popular sparsity‐inducing spatial covariance approximation technique, we show through simulations that our approach accurately estimates the Bayesian predictive distribution of extreme weather events, is scalable to several thousand spatial locations, and is several orders of magnitude faster than MCMC. A case study in forecasting extreme snowfall across Canada is presented.
广义极值(GEV)分布是分析和预测极端天气数据的常用模型。为了提高预测精度,通常会通过关于 GEV 参数的潜在高斯过程 (GP) 汇集空间信息。GEV-GP 模型的推断通常使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)方法,或使用近似推断方法,如集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似(INLA)。然而,随着空间位置数量的增加,MCMC 的速度会变得过慢,而 INLA 在实践中只适用于 GEV-GP 模型的有限子集。在本文中,我们重新审视了用于拟合空间 GEV 模型的原始拉普拉斯近似。结合流行的稀疏性诱导空间协方差近似技术,我们通过仿真表明,我们的方法能准确估计极端天气事件的贝叶斯预测分布,可扩展到数千个空间位置,而且比 MCMC 快几个数量级。我们还介绍了预测加拿大极端降雪的案例研究。
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引用次数: 0
A framework for incorporating behavioural change into individual‐level spatial epidemic models 将行为变化纳入个人层面空间流行病模型的框架
Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1002/cjs.11828
Madeline A. Ward, Rob Deardon, Lorna E. Deeth
Epidemic trajectories can be substantially impacted by people modifying their behaviours in response to changes in their perceived risk of spreading or contracting the disease. However, most infectious disease models assume a stable population behaviour. We present a flexible new class of models, called behavioural change individual‐level models (BC‐ILMs), that incorporate both individual‐level covariate information and a data‐driven behavioural change effect. Focusing on spatial BC‐ILMs, we consider four “alarm” functions to model the effect of behavioural change as a function of infection prevalence over time. Through simulation studies, we find that if behavioural change is present, using an alarm function, even if specified incorrectly, will result in an improvement in posterior predictive performance over a model that assumes stable population behaviour. The methods are applied to data from the 2001 U.K. foot and mouth disease epidemic. The results show some evidence of a behavioural change effect, although it may not meaningfully impact model fit compared to a simpler spatial ILM in this dataset.
人们会根据自己对传播或感染疾病风险的感知变化而改变自己的行为,从而对流行病的轨迹产生重大影响。然而,大多数传染病模型都假定人群行为是稳定的。我们提出了一类灵活的新模型,称为行为变化个体水平模型(BC-ILMs),其中包含个体水平协变量信息和数据驱动的行为变化效应。以空间 BC-ILM 为重点,我们考虑了四种 "报警 "函数,将行为变化的影响作为感染率随时间变化的函数进行建模。通过模拟研究,我们发现,如果存在行为变化,使用报警函数,即使指定不正确,也会比假定人口行为稳定的模型提高后验预测性能。这些方法被应用于 2001 年英国口蹄疫疫情数据。结果显示了一些行为变化效应的证据,尽管与该数据集中更简单的空间 ILM 相比,行为变化效应可能不会对模型拟合产生有意义的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Debiased lasso after sample splitting for estimation and inference in high‐dimensional generalized linear models 用于高维广义线性模型估计和推理的样本分割后去偏套索技术
Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1002/cjs.11827
Omar Vazquez, Bin Nan
We consider random sample splitting for estimation and inference in high‐dimensional generalized linear models (GLMs), where we first apply the lasso to select a submodel using one subsample and then apply the debiased lasso to fit the selected model using the remaining subsample. We show that a sample splitting procedure based on the debiased lasso yields asymptotically normal estimates under mild conditions and that multiple splitting can address the loss of efficiency. Our simulation results indicate that using the debiased lasso instead of the standard maximum likelihood method in the estimation stage can vastly reduce the bias and variance of the resulting estimates. Furthermore, our multiple splitting debiased lasso method has better numerical performance than some existing methods for high‐dimensional GLMs proposed in the recent literature. We illustrate the proposed multiple splitting method with an analysis of the smoking data of the Mid‐South Tobacco Case–Control Study.
我们考虑了用于高维广义线性模型(GLM)估计和推断的随机样本分割,在这种情况下,我们首先应用套索(lasso)使用一个子样本选择一个子模型,然后应用去杂套索(debiased lasso)使用剩余子样本拟合所选模型。我们的研究表明,在温和的条件下,基于去杂套索的样本拆分程序可以得到渐近正态的估计值,而且多次拆分可以解决效率损失的问题。我们的模拟结果表明,在估计阶段使用去偏套索法而不是标准的极大似然法,可以大大减少估计结果的偏差和方差。此外,与近期文献中提出的一些现有高维 GLM 方法相比,我们的多重分裂去偏 lasso 方法具有更好的数值性能。我们通过分析中南烟草病例对照研究的吸烟数据来说明所提出的多重分割方法。
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引用次数: 0
Variable selection in modelling clustered data via within‐cluster resampling 通过簇内再采样建立聚类数据模型时的变量选择
Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1002/cjs.11824
Shangyuan Ye, Tingting Yu, Daniel A. Caroff, Susan S. Huang, Bo Zhang, Rui Wang
In many biomedical applications, there is a need to build risk‐adjustment models based on clustered data. However, methods for variable selection that are applicable to clustered discrete data settings with a large number of candidate variables and potentially large cluster sizes are lacking. We develop a new variable selection approach that combines within‐cluster resampling techniques with penalized likelihood methods to select variables for high‐dimensional clustered data. We derive an upper bound on the expected number of falsely selected variables, demonstrate the oracle properties of the proposed method and evaluate the finite sample performance of the method through extensive simulations. We illustrate the proposed approach using a colon surgical site infection data set consisting of 39,468 individuals from 149 hospitals to build risk‐adjustment models that account for both the main effects of various risk factors and their two‐way interactions.
在许多生物医学应用中,都需要根据聚类数据建立风险调整模型。然而,目前还缺乏适用于具有大量候选变量和潜在大聚类规模的聚类离散数据设置的变量选择方法。我们开发了一种新的变量选择方法,该方法结合了簇内重采样技术和惩罚似然法,可为高维聚类数据选择变量。我们推导出了误选变量的预期数量上限,证明了所提方法的甲骨文特性,并通过大量模拟评估了该方法的有限样本性能。我们使用由来自 149 家医院的 39468 人组成的结肠手术部位感染数据集来说明所提出的方法,并建立了考虑到各种风险因素的主效应及其双向交互作用的风险调整模型。
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引用次数: 0
Joint analysis of longitudinal count and binary response data in the presence of outliers 对存在异常值的纵向计数和二元响应数据进行联合分析
Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1002/cjs.11819
Sanjoy Sinha
In this article, we develop an innovative, robust method for jointly analyzing longitudinal count and binary responses. The method is useful for bounding the influence of potential outliers in the data when estimating the model parameters. We use a log‐linear model for the count response and a logistic regression model for the binary response, where the two response processes are linked through a set of association parameters. The asymptotic properties of the robust estimators are briefly studied. The empirical properties of the estimators are studied based on simulations. The study shows that the proposed estimators are approximately unbiased and also efficient when fitting a joint model to data contaminated with outliers. We also apply the proposed method to some real longitudinal survey data obtained from a health study.
在本文中,我们开发了一种创新、稳健的方法,用于联合分析纵向计数和二元响应。在估算模型参数时,该方法有助于限制数据中潜在异常值的影响。我们对计数响应采用对数线性模型,对二元响应采用逻辑回归模型,两个响应过程通过一组关联参数联系起来。我们简要研究了稳健估计器的渐近特性。基于模拟对估计器的经验特性进行了研究。研究表明,所提出的估计器近似无偏,而且在对受异常值污染的数据拟合联合模型时也很有效。我们还将提出的方法应用于从一项健康研究中获得的一些真实纵向调查数据。
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引用次数: 0
Robust change point detection for high‐dimensional linear models with tolerance for outliers and heavy tails 容许异常值和重尾的高维线性模型的稳健变化点检测
Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1002/cjs.11826
Zhi Yang, Liwen Zhang, Siyu Sun, Bin Liu
This article focuses on detecting change points in high‐dimensional linear regression models with piecewise constant regression coefficients, moving beyond the conventional reliance on strict Gaussian or sub‐Gaussian noise assumptions. In the face of real‐world complexities, where noise often deviates into uncertain or heavy‐tailed distributions, we propose two tailored algorithms: a dynamic programming algorithm (DPA) for improved localization accuracy, and a binary segmentation algorithm (BSA) optimized for computational efficiency. These solutions are designed to be flexible, catering to increasing sample sizes and data dimensions, and offer a robust estimation of change points without requiring specific moments of the noise distribution. The efficacy of DPA and BSA is thoroughly evaluated through extensive simulation studies and application to real datasets, showing their competitive edge in adaptability and performance.
本文的重点是检测具有片断常数回归系数的高维线性回归模型中的变化点,超越了传统的严格高斯或亚高斯噪声假设。面对噪声经常偏离成不确定或重尾分布的复杂现实世界,我们提出了两种量身定制的算法:一种是提高定位精度的动态编程算法(DPA),另一种是为提高计算效率而优化的二元分割算法(BSA)。这些解决方案设计灵活,能满足样本量和数据维度不断增加的要求,并能对变化点进行稳健的估计,而不需要噪声分布的特定矩。通过广泛的模拟研究和对真实数据集的应用,对 DPA 和 BSA 的功效进行了全面评估,显示了它们在适应性和性能方面的竞争优势。
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian jackknife empirical likelihood‐based inference for missing data and causal inference 针对缺失数据和因果推断的基于经验似然法的贝叶斯千斤顶推断法
Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1002/cjs.11825
Sixia Chen, Yuke Wang, Yichuan Zhao
Missing data reduce the representativeness of the sample and can lead to inference problems. In this article, we apply the Bayesian jackknife empirical likelihood (BJEL) method for inference on data that are missing at random, as well as for causal inference. The semiparametric fractional imputation estimator, propensity score‐weighted estimator, and doubly robust estimator are used for constructing the jackknife pseudo values, which are needed for conducting BJEL‐based inference with missing data. Existing methods, such as normal approximation and JEL, are compared with the BJEL approach in a simulation study. The proposed approach shows better performance in many scenarios in terms of credible intervals. Furthermore, we demonstrate the application of the proposed approach for causal inference problems in a study of risk factors for impaired kidney function.
缺失数据会降低样本的代表性,从而导致推断问题。在本文中,我们将贝叶斯千刀经验似然法(BJEL)应用于随机缺失数据的推断以及因果推断。半参数分数估算器、倾向得分加权估算器和双重稳健估算器被用于构建杰克刀伪值,这是进行基于 BJEL 的缺失数据推断所必需的。在模拟研究中,对现有方法(如正态近似和 JEL)与 BJEL 方法进行了比较。就可信区间而言,所提出的方法在许多情况下都表现出更好的性能。此外,我们还演示了在肾功能受损风险因素研究中应用所提方法进行因果推断问题的情况。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Canadian Journal of Statistics
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