Possible impact of national responses to the COVID pandemic on medal tallies at the Paris 2024 Olympics

Abstract

Introduction: Western Pacific nations have experienced lower excess mortality compared to rest of the world since 2020 and recently performed exceptionally well on the medal tally at the 2024 Paris Olympics. This study aimed to analyse any possible connection between these factors. Methods: The top performing 18 nations from 2012, 2016 and 2020 Olympics (after Russia and Ukraine were excluded) had their relative Gold medals, total medals and medal points (Gold =3, Silver=2, Bronze=1) for Paris 2024 analysed using a backward stepwise linear regression model. Initial input factors included previous medal tallies, home city advantage, time zone effects, national excess deaths 2020-2023, average GDP growth 2020-2023 and number of country signatories to the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD), with factors >P=0.10 removed sequentially. Results: Total medals were best predicted by previous total medals (t=21.0, P<0.001) and home city advantage (t=4.1, P<0.001). Gold medals were best predicted by previous Gold medals (t=10.3, P<0.001), low national excess deaths (t=-3.2, P<0.007) and low signatories to the GBD (t=-2.2, P<0.05). Medal points were best predicted by previous medal points (t=18.1, P<0.001), home city advantage (t=3.2, P<0.007) and low national excess deaths (t=-1.8, P<0.09). Discussion: The Western Pacific countries with a COVID-cautious national perspective (Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea) tended to win more Gold medals than expected in Paris, compared to countries with a COVID-stoical national perspective (e.g. Great Britain, United States) which won fewer Golds than expected. This suggests that a COVID-cautious mentality may have contributed to better performance than a COVID-stoical approach. It is unclear whether any mechanism was physiological (less infectious disease impact before or during the Olympics) or psychological. If this effect existed for Golds, it did not appear to have any effect on Silver and Bronze medals.