{"title":"Dynamic prediction of overhead transmission line ampacity based on the BP neural network using Bayesian optimization","authors":"Yong Sun, Yuanqi Liu, Bowen Wang, Yu Lu, Ruihua Fan, Xiaozhe Song, Yong Jiang, Xin She, Shengyao Shi, Kerui Ma, Guoqing Zhang, Xinyi Shen","doi":"10.3389/fenrg.2024.1449586","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Traditionally, the ampacity of an overhead transmission line (OHTL) is a static value obtained based on adverse weather conditions, which constrains the transmission capacity. With the continuous growth of power system load, it is increasingly necessary to dynamically adjust the ampacity based on weather conditions. To this end, this paper models the heat balance relationship of the OHTL based on a BP neural network using Bayesian optimization (BO-BP). On this basis, an OHTL ampacity prediction method considering the model error is proposed. First, a two-stage current-stepping ampacity prediction model is established to obtain the initial ampacity prediction results. Then, the risk control strategy of ampacity prediction considering the model error is proposed to correct the ampacity based on the quartile of the model error to reduce the risk of the conductor overheating caused by the model error. Finally, a simulation is carried out based on the operation data of a 220-kV transmission line. The simulation results show that the accuracy of the BO-BP model is improved by more than 20% compared with the traditional heat balance equation. The proposed ampacity prediction method can improve the transmission capacity by more than 150% compared with the original static ampacity.","PeriodicalId":12428,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Energy Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Frontiers in Energy Research","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2024.1449586","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Traditionally, the ampacity of an overhead transmission line (OHTL) is a static value obtained based on adverse weather conditions, which constrains the transmission capacity. With the continuous growth of power system load, it is increasingly necessary to dynamically adjust the ampacity based on weather conditions. To this end, this paper models the heat balance relationship of the OHTL based on a BP neural network using Bayesian optimization (BO-BP). On this basis, an OHTL ampacity prediction method considering the model error is proposed. First, a two-stage current-stepping ampacity prediction model is established to obtain the initial ampacity prediction results. Then, the risk control strategy of ampacity prediction considering the model error is proposed to correct the ampacity based on the quartile of the model error to reduce the risk of the conductor overheating caused by the model error. Finally, a simulation is carried out based on the operation data of a 220-kV transmission line. The simulation results show that the accuracy of the BO-BP model is improved by more than 20% compared with the traditional heat balance equation. The proposed ampacity prediction method can improve the transmission capacity by more than 150% compared with the original static ampacity.
期刊介绍:
Frontiers in Energy Research makes use of the unique Frontiers platform for open-access publishing and research networking for scientists, which provides an equal opportunity to seek, share and create knowledge. The mission of Frontiers is to place publishing back in the hands of working scientists and to promote an interactive, fair, and efficient review process. Articles are peer-reviewed according to the Frontiers review guidelines, which evaluate manuscripts on objective editorial criteria