Dynamic prediction of overhead transmission line ampacity based on the BP neural network using Bayesian optimization

IF 2.6 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Frontiers in Energy Research Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI:10.3389/fenrg.2024.1449586
Yong Sun, Yuanqi Liu, Bowen Wang, Yu Lu, Ruihua Fan, Xiaozhe Song, Yong Jiang, Xin She, Shengyao Shi, Kerui Ma, Guoqing Zhang, Xinyi Shen
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Abstract

Traditionally, the ampacity of an overhead transmission line (OHTL) is a static value obtained based on adverse weather conditions, which constrains the transmission capacity. With the continuous growth of power system load, it is increasingly necessary to dynamically adjust the ampacity based on weather conditions. To this end, this paper models the heat balance relationship of the OHTL based on a BP neural network using Bayesian optimization (BO-BP). On this basis, an OHTL ampacity prediction method considering the model error is proposed. First, a two-stage current-stepping ampacity prediction model is established to obtain the initial ampacity prediction results. Then, the risk control strategy of ampacity prediction considering the model error is proposed to correct the ampacity based on the quartile of the model error to reduce the risk of the conductor overheating caused by the model error. Finally, a simulation is carried out based on the operation data of a 220-kV transmission line. The simulation results show that the accuracy of the BO-BP model is improved by more than 20% compared with the traditional heat balance equation. The proposed ampacity prediction method can improve the transmission capacity by more than 150% compared with the original static ampacity.
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利用贝叶斯优化方法,基于 BP 神经网络动态预测架空输电线路容量
传统上,架空输电线路(OHTL)的安培值是根据恶劣天气条件得出的静态值,这限制了输电能力。随着电力系统负荷的持续增长,越来越有必要根据天气条件动态调整安培值。为此,本文基于贝叶斯优化(BO-BP)的 BP 神经网络,对 OHTL 的热平衡关系进行建模。在此基础上,提出了一种考虑模型误差的 OHTL 容量预测方法。首先,建立一个两阶段电流阶跃容量预测模型,得到初始容量预测结果。然后,提出了考虑模型误差的容量预测风险控制策略,根据模型误差的四分位数修正容量,以降低模型误差导致的导体过热风险。最后,根据一条 220 千伏输电线路的运行数据进行了仿真。仿真结果表明,与传统的热平衡方程相比,BO-BP 模型的精度提高了 20% 以上。与原来的静态容量相比,所提出的容量预测方法可将输电容量提高 150% 以上。
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Energy Research
Frontiers in Energy Research Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
11.80%
发文量
1727
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊介绍: Frontiers in Energy Research makes use of the unique Frontiers platform for open-access publishing and research networking for scientists, which provides an equal opportunity to seek, share and create knowledge. The mission of Frontiers is to place publishing back in the hands of working scientists and to promote an interactive, fair, and efficient review process. Articles are peer-reviewed according to the Frontiers review guidelines, which evaluate manuscripts on objective editorial criteria
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