Demand-side management scenario analysis for the energy-efficient future of Pakistan: Bridging the gap between market interests and national priorities

IF 2.6 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Frontiers in Energy Research Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI:10.3389/fenrg.2024.1391973
Arshad Chughtai, Mohammad Aslam Uqaili, Nayyar Hussain Mirjat, Faheemullah Shaikh, Shoaib Ahmed Khatri
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Abstract

Pakistan is facing the worst level of energy and economic crisis of its history. The underlying reason of the economic crisis is basically due to the energy crisis. Various approaches have been adopted to tackle the energy crises which the country is facing for over 2 decades. Demand-side management (DSM) is the most potent and cost-effective option to redress the energy crisis, which, unfortunately, has been the most neglected strategy in Pakistan. DSM has the potential to save up to 10.0%–15.0% of primary energy to ensure the country’s future energy security. Laws and codes do exist, but ironically, the most vital element of DSM’s policy framework and implementation mechanism is missing. Hence, the main objective of this research is to develop a DSM model for Pakistan and analyze the reference and DSM scenarios. Low-emission analysis platform (LEAP) is used to develop Pakistan’s DSM model for the study period 2021–2050. The three alternative DSM scenarios developed include energy efficiency (EEF), energy conservation (EC), and load management (LOM), and they are all analyzed. The model results estimate the electricity demand forecast of 1009.8 TWh under the reference scenario in 2050, whereas DSM tends to result in a 26.38% decreased electricity demand compared to the reference scenario. The alternative DSM scenarios also outperform the reference scenario. In 2050, the EC scenario reduces consumption by 178.0 TWh and GHG emissions by 19.20 million metric tons, the EEF scenario reduces consumption by 110.30 TWh and GHG emissions by 10.04 million metric tons, and the LOM scenario suggests reduced consumption by 101.0 TWh and GHG emissions by 6.20 million metric tons. This study concluded that the DSM must be institutionalized in Pakistan by building a robust regulatory framework and execution mechanism at the government and utility levels.
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巴基斯坦未来能源效率的需求方管理情景分析:缩小市场利益与国家优先事项之间的差距
巴基斯坦正面临其历史上最严重的能源和经济危机。经济危机的根本原因是能源危机。为解决该国 20 多年来面临的能源危机,已经采取了各种方法。需求方管理(DSM)是解决能源危机的最有效和最具成本效益的选择,但不幸的是,它一直是巴基斯坦最被忽视的战略。DSM 有可能节省高达 10.0%-15.0% 的一次能源,从而确保国家未来的能源安全。法律和法规确实存在,但具有讽刺意味的是,DSM 政策框架和实施机制中最重要的元素却缺失了。因此,本研究的主要目标是为巴基斯坦开发一个 DSM 模型,并对参考方案和 DSM 方案进行分析。低排放分析平台(LEAP)用于开发巴基斯坦 2021-2050 年研究期间的 DSM 模型。所开发的三种可选 DSM 方案包括能源效率 (EEF)、节能 (EC) 和负荷管理 (LOM),并对所有方案进行了分析。模型结果估计,在 2050 年的参考情景下,电力需求预测为 1009.8 太瓦时,而与参考情景相比,用电需求管理方案往往会导致电力需求减少 26.38%。替代性用户需求管理方案的效果也优于参考方案。2050 年,EC 方案减少了 178.0 太瓦时的用电量和 1920 万公吨的温室气体排放量,EEF 方案减少了 110.30 太瓦时的用电量和 1004 万公吨的温室气体排放量,LOM 方案减少了 101.0 太瓦时的用电量和 620 万公吨的温室气体排放量。本研究认为,必须在政府和公用事业层面建立健全的监管框架和执行机制,从而在巴基斯坦将 DSM 制度化。
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Energy Research
Frontiers in Energy Research Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
11.80%
发文量
1727
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊介绍: Frontiers in Energy Research makes use of the unique Frontiers platform for open-access publishing and research networking for scientists, which provides an equal opportunity to seek, share and create knowledge. The mission of Frontiers is to place publishing back in the hands of working scientists and to promote an interactive, fair, and efficient review process. Articles are peer-reviewed according to the Frontiers review guidelines, which evaluate manuscripts on objective editorial criteria
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