Prediction of hydrogen consumption scale and hydrogen price based on LEAP model and two-factor learning curve

IF 2.6 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Frontiers in Energy Research Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI:10.3389/fenrg.2024.1450966
Hongxia Li, Haiguo Yu, Haiting Wang, Xiaokan Gou, Fei Liu, Lixin Li, Qian Wang, Xin Zhang, Yuanyuan Li
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Abstract

Under the dual-carbon target, hydrogen energy, as a zero-carbon secondary energy source, has great scope for replacing fossil feedstocks in the fields of energy, transportation and industry. However, the current research on the competitiveness of hydrogen energy in various fields is not sufficiently addressed. In this paper, we use the LEAP model to predict the future scale of hydrogen use and the two-factor learning curve to predict the trend of hydrogen price change from 2025 to 2050, using Qinghai Province as the research background. At the same time, considering the carbon emission reduction benefits and raw material costs, the competitiveness of hydrogen energy in energy, transportation, industry and other fields in the future is compared. The results show that: 1) The hydrogen load scale in Qinghai Province will grow fast from 2025 to 2030. From 2030 to 2040, it slows under the steady and basic scenarios but remains high under the accelerated one. By 2040, the consumption scales are 1.057 million, 649,000 and 442,000 tons respectively. 2) The price of hydrogen energy will drop rapidly from the current 28 CNY/kg to about 20 CNY/kg in the next 5 years. By 2040, the price of hydrogen energy will be reduced to about 17 CNY/kg. 3) In terms of hydrogen energy competitiveness, when carbon emissions are not taken into account, hydrogen energy is currently competitive in the transportation field. During 2032–2038, it will be competitive in the field of methanol synthesis. By 2040, hydrogen energy will not be competitive in the fields of ammonia synthesis and power/heating. When considering carbon emissions, the competitiveness of hydrogen energy in the transportation field will become greater. The competitive year in the field of methanol synthesis will be 1–2 years ahead. By 2040, it will not be competitive in the field of synthetic ammonia and power/heating, but the gap will be significantly reduced due to the consideration of carbon emissions.
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基于 LEAP 模型和双因素学习曲线的氢气消费规模和氢气价格预测
在双碳目标下,氢能作为零碳二次能源,在能源、交通、工业等领域替代化石原料的空间巨大。然而,目前对氢能在各领域竞争力的研究还不够深入。本文以青海省为研究背景,利用LEAP模型预测未来氢能利用规模,并利用双因素学习曲线预测2025-2050年氢能价格变化趋势。同时,综合考虑碳减排效益和原材料成本,比较了氢能未来在能源、交通、工业等领域的竞争力。结果表明1)2025-2030 年,青海省氢能负荷规模将快速增长。从 2030 年到 2040 年,在稳定情景和基本情景下增长放缓,但在加速情景下仍保持较高增长。到 2040 年,消费规模分别为 105.7 万吨、64.9 万吨和 44.2 万吨。2) 未来 5 年,氢能价格将从目前的 28 元/千克快速下降到 20 元/千克左右。到 2040 年,氢能价格将降至约 17 元/千克。3) 从氢能的竞争力来看,在不考虑碳排放的情况下,氢能目前在交通领域具有竞争力。2032-2038 年间,氢能在甲醇合成领域将具有竞争力。到 2040 年,氢能在合成氨和电力/供热领域将不再具有竞争力。如果考虑到碳排放,氢能在运输领域的竞争力将变得更大。甲醇合成领域的竞争年限将提前 1-2 年。到 2040 年,氢能在合成氨和电力/供热领域将不具备竞争力,但由于考虑到碳排放,差距将大大缩小。
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Energy Research
Frontiers in Energy Research Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
11.80%
发文量
1727
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊介绍: Frontiers in Energy Research makes use of the unique Frontiers platform for open-access publishing and research networking for scientists, which provides an equal opportunity to seek, share and create knowledge. The mission of Frontiers is to place publishing back in the hands of working scientists and to promote an interactive, fair, and efficient review process. Articles are peer-reviewed according to the Frontiers review guidelines, which evaluate manuscripts on objective editorial criteria
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