Evaluation and projection of marine heatwaves in the South China Sea: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the South China Sea (SCS) during the historical period (1982–2014), and also investigates future changes in SCS MHWs based on simulations from three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) using CMIP6 models. Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 models perform well in simulating the spatial-temporal distribution and intensity of SCS MHWs, with their multi-model ensemble (MME) results showing the best performance. The reasonable agreement between the observations and CMIP6 MME reveals that the increasing trends of SCS MHWs are attributed to the warming sea surface temperature trend. Under various SSP scenarios, the year 2040 emerges as pivotal juncture for future shifts in SCS MHWs, marked by distinct variations in changing rate and amplitudes. This is characterized by an accelerated decrease in MHWs frequency and a notably heightened increase in mean intensity, duration, and total days after 2040. Furthermore, the projection results for SCS MHWs suggest that the spatial pattern of MHWs remains consistent across future periods. However, the intensity shows higher consistency only during the near-term period (2021–2050), while notable inconsistencies are observed during the medium-term (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods under the three SSP scenarios. During the near-term period, the SCS MHWs are characterized by moderate and strong events with high frequencies and relatively shorter durations. In contrast, during the medium-term period, MHWs are also characterized by moderate and strong events, but with longer-lasting and more intense events under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. However, in the long-term period, extreme MHWs become the dominant feature under the SSP585 scenario, indicating a substantial intensification of SCS MHWs, effectively establishing a near-permanent state.