Understanding the patterns and predictors of human-elephant conflict in Tamil Nadu, India

Abstract

Habitat loss and encroachment lead to conservation challenges such as human-elephant conflicts (HEC). Understanding the patterns and predictors of HEC is crucial to identify priority areas for mitigation efforts. Accordingly, a study was conducted across the forest divisions of Tamil Nadu, India. We collected HEC data for 2016–2021 from the forest department compensation database maintained in forest divisions. Our analysis encompassed division-wise, crop-wise, conflict-wise assessments, temporal analysis and conflict risk modelling (CRM). We divided the forest divisions into 4 different zones based on the variables that likely influence HEC. The results revealed that conflict frequency was higher in the forest range Denkankottai, located in the Hosur division, which falls under Zone 1. HEC was higher from November to January in correspondence with the cropping season. Elephants primarily damaged millet (ragi) (Eleusine coracana), with n = 2,182, particularly during November and December, followed by banana (Musa genus) with n = 1,690. The CRM predicts that the southwest and northwest regions of Tamil Nādu had higher conflict risks and area coverage of medium and high conflict risk zones as 17,025 km² and 3521 km², respectively. The CRM revealed that the most significant variables in predicting conflict risk are the annual mean temperature, human modification index, and digital elevation model. Areas with higher conflict risk were closer to forest cover, croplands, roads, and water bodies. These regions typically had lower terrain ruggedness, higher human modification, lower temperatures, and dense vegetation. The present study’s findings underscore the need for a comprehensive and multidimensional approach to managing HEC, which is crucial for fostering coexistence between humans and elephants in the region.