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Hunting bag statistics of wild mammals in Portugal (1989–2022): on the need to improve data report and compilation 葡萄牙野生哺乳动物狩猎袋统计数据(1989-2022 年):关于改进数据报告和汇编的必要性
IF 2 3区 生物学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1007/s10344-024-01850-y
João Carvalho, Dário Hipólito, Daniela Teixeira, Carlos Fonseca, Rita Tinoco Torres

Wildlife monitoring is key for the effective management of natural resources. Hunting-based data (e.g., hunting bag statistics) is an important source of information to overcome the financial constraints imposed to long-term monitoring. Here, taking advantage of three decades (1989–2022) of hunting bag statistics of wild mammals in Portugal, we present the trends and discuss the issues regarding nine game species (five wild ungulates, two carnivores and two lagomorphs). Our results show that hunting bag statistics mirror the general population trends of wild mammal populations at a national scale. The data reflects the increase in number and distribution of roe deer, red deer and wild boar, and the recent expansion experienced by the Egyptian mongoose. The decline in the numbers of European wild rabbit and Iberian hare harvested are also noticeable. Hunting-based data have been used in several research contexts; however, this information is usually affected by geographical, temporal and recording bias. Portugal is no exception. Engaging the interested stakeholders is pivotal to ensure data quality. By reporting reliable and systematically collected hunting data, game managers and wildlife researchers will be able to better understand the main drivers of population dynamics, adjust hunting bags towards sustainable yield and assess the ecological and socio-economic relevance of the hunting sector.

野生动物监测是有效管理自然资源的关键。基于狩猎的数据(如狩猎袋统计数据)是克服长期监测资金限制的重要信息来源。在此,我们利用葡萄牙三十年(1989-2022 年)的野生哺乳动物狩猎袋统计数据,介绍了九种狩猎物种(五种野生有蹄类动物、两种食肉动物和两种小型哺乳动物)的发展趋势并讨论了相关问题。我们的研究结果表明,狩猎袋统计数据反映了全国范围内野生哺乳动物种群的总体趋势。数据反映了狍子、红鹿和野猪数量和分布的增加,以及埃及獴最近的扩张。欧洲野兔和伊比利亚野兔捕获量的下降也很明显。基于狩猎的数据已被用于多项研究;然而,这些信息通常会受到地理、时间和记录偏差的影响。葡萄牙也不例外。让相关利益方参与进来是确保数据质量的关键。通过报告可靠和系统收集的狩猎数据,狩猎管理者和野生动物研究人员将能够更好地了解种群动态的主要驱动因素,调整狩猎袋以实现可持续产量,并评估狩猎行业的生态和社会经济意义。
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引用次数: 0
Observation of threatened pinyon jays Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus in the EU pet market as a potential additional threat 观察欧盟宠物市场上受威胁的松鸦(Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus),将其视为潜在的额外威胁
IF 2 3区 生物学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1007/s10344-024-01843-x
Chris R. Shepherd, Simon Bruslund, Boyd T. C. Leupen, S. Sunny Nelson

The pinyon jay Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus is listed as Vulnerable by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species due to its continued decline in the wild caused by impacts to its unique pinyon-juniper woodland habitat. Recent reviews do not mention commercial trade as a threat and no information is given on use and trade at all. Here we provide evidence of recent international trade in pinyon jays observed in the European Union. We recommend listing the species in Appendix III of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) to enable the monitoring of international trade. Additionally, the desirability of a listing in a higher appendix of CITES at the next Conference of the Parties, as a more restrictive measure, should be assessed, as it may provide a necessary tool to prevent illegal international trade from becoming an additional threat for this unique North American songbird.

松鸦(Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus)被《世界自然保护联盟濒危物种红色名录》列为易危物种,原因是其独特的松树-桧木林栖息地受到影响,导致其野外数量持续下降。最近的评述没有提到商业贸易是一种威胁,也没有提供任何关于使用和贸易的信息。在此,我们提供了最近在欧盟观察到的松鸦国际贸易的证据。我们建议将该物种列入《濒危野生动植物种国际贸易公约》(CITES)附录 III,以便对国际贸易进行监控。此外,在下一届《濒危野生动植物种国际贸易公约》缔约方大会上,作为一项限制性更强的措施,将松鸦列入《濒危野生动植物种国际贸易公约》更高一级附录的可取性也应得到评估,因为这可能为防止非法国际贸易成为这种独特的北美鸣禽的额外威胁提供必要的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Dietary differences in males and females of a strongly sexually dimorphic ungulate 雄性和雌性动物在饮食方面的差异
IF 2 3区 生物学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1007/s10344-024-01845-9
Alice Brambilla, Xavier Bal, Maria Letizia Lusetti, Mattia Colombo, Andrea Mainetti, Lukas Keller, Bruno Bassano

Detailed knowledge of dietary preferences in wild species are important both for understanding evolutionary processes as well as for their conservation. By means of DNA metabarcoding analysis of faecal samples, we investigated the diet of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex), a mountain ungulate characterised by strong sexual dimorphism and segregation, and analysed differences between male and female diet. Despite a low level of selectivity, we found differences in the diet of males and females that consumed different plant in different quantities. Differences were maintained during both spring and summer. Males tended to feed more on plants richer in fibres (i.e., grasses and sedges) and showed stronger seasonal differences while females consumed more digestible plant families (i.e., forbs). Differences in diet between male and female Alpine ibex are compatible with the strong sexual dimorphism and segregation typical of the species and with female reproductive constraints. These results also show that conservation actions have to take into account different ecological needs of males and females in species characterized by sexual dimorphism and segregation.

详细了解野生物种的饮食偏好对了解其进化过程和保护它们都很重要。通过对粪便样本进行 DNA 代谢编码分析,我们研究了阿尔卑斯山山羊(Capra ibex)的饮食,并分析了雌雄饮食之间的差异。尽管选择性较低,但我们发现雌雄山羊的食性存在差异,它们食用不同植物的数量也不同。这种差异在春季和夏季都保持不变。雄性倾向于摄食纤维含量更丰富的植物(如草和莎草),并表现出更强的季节性差异,而雌性则摄食更易消化的植物家族(如草本植物)。雄性和雌性阿尔卑斯山山羊在饮食方面的差异与该物种典型的强烈性二型和隔离以及雌性繁殖限制是一致的。这些结果还表明,保护行动必须考虑到具有性二型和性分离特征的物种中雌性和雄性的不同生态需求。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the patterns and predictors of human-elephant conflict in Tamil Nadu, India 了解印度泰米尔纳德邦人象冲突的模式和预测因素
IF 2 3区 生物学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1007/s10344-024-01848-6
Thekke Thumbath Shameer, Priyambada Routray, A. Udhayan, Nihar Ranjan, Manikka Govindan Ganesan, Arulmani Manimozhi, Dhayanithi Vasanthakumari

Habitat loss and encroachment lead to conservation challenges such as human-elephant conflicts (HEC). Understanding the patterns and predictors of HEC is crucial to identify priority areas for mitigation efforts. Accordingly, a study was conducted across the forest divisions of Tamil Nadu, India. We collected HEC data for 2016–2021 from the forest department compensation database maintained in forest divisions. Our analysis encompassed division-wise, crop-wise, conflict-wise assessments, temporal analysis and conflict risk modelling (CRM). We divided the forest divisions into 4 different zones based on the variables that likely influence HEC. The results revealed that conflict frequency was higher in the forest range Denkankottai, located in the Hosur division, which falls under Zone 1. HEC was higher from November to January in correspondence with the cropping season. Elephants primarily damaged millet (ragi) (Eleusine coracana), with n = 2,182, particularly during November and December, followed by banana (Musa genus) with n = 1,690. The CRM predicts that the southwest and northwest regions of Tamil Nādu had higher conflict risks and area coverage of medium and high conflict risk zones as 17,025 km2 and 3521 km2, respectively. The CRM revealed that the most significant variables in predicting conflict risk are the annual mean temperature, human modification index, and digital elevation model. Areas with higher conflict risk were closer to forest cover, croplands, roads, and water bodies. These regions typically had lower terrain ruggedness, higher human modification, lower temperatures, and dense vegetation. The present study’s findings underscore the need for a comprehensive and multidimensional approach to managing HEC, which is crucial for fostering coexistence between humans and elephants in the region.

栖息地的丧失和侵占导致保护工作面临挑战,例如人象冲突(HEC)。了解人象冲突的模式和预测因素对于确定缓解工作的优先区域至关重要。因此,我们在印度泰米尔纳德邦的森林分区开展了一项研究。我们从林业部门在各森林分区维护的补偿数据库中收集了 2016-2021 年的 HEC 数据。我们的分析包括分区、作物、冲突评估、时间分析和冲突风险建模 (CRM)。根据可能影响 HEC 的变量,我们将林区划分为 4 个不同的区域。结果显示,冲突频率较高的是位于霍苏尔分区的登康科泰林区,该林区属于 1 区。11 月至次年 1 月的冲突发生率较高,这与耕种季节相符。大象主要破坏小米(rabi)(Eleusine coracana),数量为 2,182 头,尤其是在 11 月和 12 月,其次是香蕉(Musa 属),数量为 1,690 头。根据 CRM 预测,泰米尔纳德邦西南和西北地区的冲突风险较高,中度和高度冲突风险区的面积分别为 17 025 平方公里和 3521 平方公里。CRM 发现,预测冲突风险最重要的变量是年平均气温、人类改造指数和数字高程模型。冲突风险较高的地区更靠近森林植被、耕地、道路和水体。这些地区的地形崎岖程度通常较低,人为改造程度较高,气温较低,植被茂密。本研究的结果表明,有必要采用综合、多维的方法来管理黑海生态系统,这对促进该地区人象共存至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Two neotropical spotted felids in the Nevado de Toluca Volcano? The highest altitude records 在托卢卡火山内瓦多发现两只新热带斑点猫科动物?最高海拔记录
IF 2 3区 生物学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1007/s10344-024-01847-7
Martha Mariela Zarco-González, Ángel Balbuena-Serrano, Zuleyma Zarco-González, Octavio Monroy-Vilchis

Leopardus wiedii and Leopardus pardalis are endangered small felids. Its main altitudinal range expands from sea level to 1,500 m. Camera traps were placed in the Matawi Indigenous Park on the Nevado de Toluca Volcano. Photographic records were obtained of L. wiedii at 3,207 masl and of L. pardalis at 3,307 masl. This is the highest altitudinal record for margay in its distribution, and for ocelot is the highest in the northern hemisphere.

豹猫(Leopardus wiedii)和豹猫(Leopardus pardalis)是濒临灭绝的小型猫科动物。在托卢卡火山内瓦多的马塔维土著公园(Matawi Indigenous Park)放置了相机陷阱。在海拔 3207 米处拍摄到了 L. wiedii,在海拔 3307 米处拍摄到了 L. pardalis。这是 margay 在其分布区的最高海拔记录,也是猫鼬在北半球的最高记录。
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引用次数: 0
Red 15 Hz flickering light: a novel technique for effective wild bird management 红色 15 赫兹闪烁灯:有效管理野生鸟类的新技术
IF 2 3区 生物学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1007/s10344-024-01846-8
Takeshi Honda, Hiroki Tominaga, Akio Shimizu

Human-bird conflicts are in a critical state, involving economic losses such as agricultural losses, bird strikes on aircraft and avian influenza. Traditional technologies leveraging bird vision and hearing often lose their effectiveness over time as birds become habituated to these stimuli. To address these challenges, our study introduces a novel countermeasure technology based on neurophysiology. The human brain reacts to flickering light, which can cause symptoms like headaches, nausea, and dizziness. In extremely rare cases, 15 Hz flickering red light can even lead to epilepsy. Not only humans, but chickens also suffer from 14 Hz flickering light. This led us to consider the possibility that similar flickering light stimuli could be applicable to bird management. In our experiments conducted during the day, we used long-range flashlights. White flickering light had no effect on bird escape behavior. However, when cellophane film was attached to the flashlights to restrict the wavelength, the emitted red light induced escape behavior in birds. Additionally, employing two types of flashlights to generate flickering red + blue or red + green lights elicited escape behavior. However, the blue and green combination proved to be less effective. The most intense flickering frequency for crows was 15 Hz. These results are highly similar to those found in human neurophysiology, showing that red light alone and the combination of red and blue lights have the most significant impact on the brain. By measuring the flight initiation distance (FID) of birds, we found that illuminated areas had a significantly higher FID (137 m) compared to non-illuminated areas (12 m). These findings suggest that applying principles of human physiology to wildlife management can offer new solutions for bird damage control.

人鸟冲突正处于危急状态,涉及农业损失、鸟类撞击飞机和禽流感等经济损失。利用鸟类视觉和听觉的传统技术往往会随着时间的推移而失去效果,因为鸟类已经习惯了这些刺激。为了应对这些挑战,我们的研究引入了一种基于神经生理学的新型对策技术。人脑会对闪烁的光线做出反应,从而引起头痛、恶心和头晕等症状。在极少数情况下,15 赫兹的闪烁红光甚至会导致癫痫。不仅是人类,鸡也会受到 14 赫兹闪烁光的影响。这促使我们考虑类似的闪烁光刺激是否也适用于鸟类管理。在白天进行的实验中,我们使用了远距离手电筒。白色闪烁光对鸟类的逃跑行为没有影响。但是,如果在手电筒上贴上玻璃纸薄膜以限制波长,发出的红光就会诱发鸟类的逃跑行为。此外,使用两种类型的手电筒产生闪烁的红光+蓝光或红光+绿光也会诱发鸟类的逃跑行为。然而,蓝绿组合的效果较差。乌鸦最强烈的闪烁频率为 15 赫兹。这些结果与人类神经生理学发现的结果高度相似,表明单独的红光以及红光和蓝光的组合对大脑的影响最大。通过测量鸟类的飞行起始距离(FID),我们发现照明区域的 FID(137 米)明显高于非照明区域(12 米)。这些发现表明,将人类生理学原理应用于野生动物管理,可以为鸟类损害控制提供新的解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Broad geographic variation in age- and sex-dependent origin of harvested eurasian wigeon (Mareca penelope) revealed by stable-hydrogen (δ2H) isotope analyses of feathers 通过对羽毛进行稳定氢(δ2H)同位素分析,发现收获的欧亚鸽(Mareca penelope)的年龄和性别来源存在广泛的地理差异
IF 2 3区 生物学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1007/s10344-024-01849-5
Sari Holopainen, Antti Piironen, Jackson W. Kusack, Keith A. Hobson, Matthew B. Ellis, Iben Hove Sørensen, Heather Warrender, Toni Laaksonen

Migratory waterfowl are a harvested resource shared among multiple European countries, exposing them to potential overexploitation. Management of take is challenging since the life cycle of migratory waterfowl consists of several stages distributed among several locations, with possible spatio-temporal overlap among populations with differing population trends. Successful harvest management in such situations requires knowledge about the connections between breeding and non-breeding locations, and where birds are harvested. Breeding populations of Eurasian wigeon (Mareca penelope) are declining in Finland, underlining the need for more effective harvest management. Relative proportions and temporal distribution of local breeding birds and migrants from a larger Russian breeding population within the Finnish hunting bag has been unknown to date. We studied spatio-temporal origins of Finnish harvested wigeon by measuring stable-hydrogen (δ2H) isotope values from legally harvested birds. We modelled the changes in δ2H values of the feather samples within the hunting season using Gaussian processes and found that the origin of harvested wigeon in Finland changed during the hunting season and differed by age and sex. In juveniles and adult females but not in adult males, origin of harvested birds shifted from local and possibly western Russian birds to more long-distance migratory birds during the harvest season. These patterns likely reflected sex- and age-specific differences in migratory behaviour of Eurasian wigeon in the East Atlantic flyway, which can be used to guide future management and conservation of this species through the implementation of spatio-temporal harvest regulation.

迁徙水禽是欧洲多个国家共享的一种捕获资源,有可能遭到过度开发。由于迁徙水禽的生命周期由分布在多个地点的多个阶段组成,不同种群之间可能存在时空重叠,且种群趋势各不相同,因此对捕获的管理具有挑战性。要在这种情况下成功地进行捕获管理,需要了解繁殖地与非繁殖地之间的联系,以及鸟类被捕获的地点。芬兰的欧亚鸽(Mareca penelope)繁殖种群数量正在下降,这凸显了更有效的收获管理的必要性。迄今为止,芬兰狩猎袋中本地繁殖鸟类和来自俄罗斯较大繁殖种群的迁徙鸟类的相对比例和时间分布尚不清楚。我们通过测量合法捕获鸟类的稳定氢(δ2H)同位素值,研究了芬兰捕获鸽子的时空来源。我们利用高斯过程模拟了狩猎季节羽毛样本中δ2H值的变化,发现芬兰被捕获鸽子的来源在狩猎季节发生了变化,并且因年龄和性别而异。在狩猎季节,雌性幼鸟和成年雌鸟(而非雄性成年雌鸟)的捕获来源从当地鸟类(可能是俄罗斯西部鸟类)转变为更多的长途迁徙鸟类。这些模式可能反映了欧亚鸽在东大西洋航道上迁徙行为的性别和年龄差异,可用于指导未来通过实施时空捕获监管来管理和保护该物种。
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引用次数: 0
First records of the raccoon roundworm (Baylisascaris procyonis) in Luxembourg: evidence for natural spread and a novel introduction 浣熊蛔虫(Baylisascaris procyonis)在卢森堡的首次记录:自然传播和新引进的证据
IF 2 3区 生物学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1007/s10344-024-01844-w
Alain C. Frantz, Stéphanie Lippert, Jill Gaasch, Mike Heddergott, Louis Kox

The raccoon roundworm (Baylisascaris procyonis), a gastrointestinal nematode parasite of the raccoon (Procyon lotor), is the causative agent of a zoonotic disease that can cause severe neurological sequelae and even fatal cases. The parasite is now established in Europe and, while not present in all raccoon populations, it is currently expanding its range. Understanding the geographic distribution of the roundworm is a necessity for public health. Here, we report the first detections of the raccoon roundworm from Luxembourg. We used genetic techniques to test whether the roundworm originated from a distinct introduction event or entered the country by natural dispersal. We detected two roundworms in a raccoon that was road-killed in Echternach, northeastern Luxembourg. Furthermore, in a wildlife rescue centre, roundworms were detected in the latrine of an enclosure containing seven raccoons. Using different genetic techniques, we showed the Echternach roundworms to originate from the nearest German population, while the rescue centre roundworms were genetically distinct. By genotyping the host from a roundworm DNA extract, we identified a raccoon originating from southwest Luxembourg as the host of at least one roundworm. Roundworms are thus colonising Luxembourg both by natural dispersal and from an introduced population. The (potential) hosts all originated from the local population, suggesting that imported/introduced roundworms have already spread to the local raccoon population. Authorities should act as though the parasite is already widespread in the country, raising awareness among the public and individuals with occupational contact with raccoons.

浣熊蛔虫(Baylisascaris procyonis)是浣熊(Procyon lotor)的一种胃肠道线虫寄生虫,是一种人畜共患病的病原体,可导致严重的神经系统后遗症,甚至致命。这种寄生虫目前已在欧洲定居,虽然并非在所有浣熊种群中都存在,但目前正在扩大范围。了解蛔虫的地理分布是公共卫生的必要条件。在此,我们报告了首次在卢森堡发现的浣熊蛔虫。我们利用基因技术检测了蛔虫是来自于独特的引入事件还是通过自然传播进入该国。我们在卢森堡东北部埃希特纳赫(Echternach)一只被路边捕杀的浣熊身上检测到了两条蛔虫。此外,在一个野生动物救助中心,我们还在一个有七只浣熊的圈舍的厕所里发现了蛔虫。利用不同的基因技术,我们发现埃希特纳赫的蛔虫来源于最近的德国种群,而救援中心的蛔虫则在基因上截然不同。通过对蛔虫DNA提取物中的宿主进行基因分型,我们确定卢森堡西南部的浣熊是至少一种蛔虫的宿主。因此,蛔虫正通过自然传播和引入种群的方式在卢森堡定居。这些(潜在)宿主均来自当地种群,这表明进口/引进的蛔虫已经传播到当地的浣熊种群中。当局应视寄生虫已在该国广泛传播,提高公众和与浣熊有职业接触者的认识。
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引用次数: 0
Cost-effectiveness of lures in attracting mammals: a large scale camera-trapping field test on European species 诱饵吸引哺乳动物的成本效益:对欧洲物种进行的大规模相机诱捕实地测试
IF 2 3区 生物学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1007/s10344-024-01840-0
Alessio Mortelliti, Riccardo Bergamin, Paola Bartolommei, Ilaria Greco, Emiliano Manzo, Francesco Rovero, Federica Fonda

The cost-effectiveness of different attractants during camera trapping surveys has been seldom evaluated. To contribute in filling this knowledge gap we (1) compare the effectiveness of a suite of attractants in detecting widely distributed mammals in Europe and (2) evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these attractants, by calculating the costs associated to reach a specific monitoring objective. We conducted a large-scale field experiment across four study areas in central and northern Italy, encompassing a variety of environments, from lowland forest to alpine beech forest. We focused on comparing the following low cost and readily available attractants: sardines, peanut butter, a commercial lure and we used a camera with no attractant as control, collecting data on a suite of small to large mammals. We found that for seven of our 13 target species detectability varied with the type of attractant used. Specifically, sardines proved to be the most effective attractant for canids and the porcupine, peanut butter was most effective for mustelids but was avoided by the roe deer, whereas the commercial lure was the most effective with red deer. Through a power analysis combined with a cost function analysis we were able to show striking differences in the cost-effectiveness of the different methods, sometimes in the order of magnitude of tens of thousands of euros, which strongly emphasizes the critical importance played by the choice of whether to use an attractant or not and the type of attractant to be used.

在照相机诱捕调查中,很少有人对不同引诱剂的成本效益进行评估。为了填补这一知识空白,我们(1)比较了一系列引诱剂在探测欧洲广泛分布的哺乳动物方面的效果;(2)通过计算达到特定监测目标的相关成本,评估了这些引诱剂的成本效益。我们在意大利中部和北部的四个研究区域进行了大规模野外实验,包括从低地森林到高山山毛榉林的各种环境。我们重点比较了以下几种低成本且容易获得的引诱剂:沙丁鱼、花生酱、一种商业引诱剂,并使用不使用引诱剂的照相机作为对照,收集了一系列小型到大型哺乳动物的数据。我们发现,在 13 个目标物种中,有 7 个物种的可探测性随所使用的引诱剂类型而变化。具体来说,沙丁鱼被证明是对犬科动物和豪猪最有效的引诱剂,花生酱对鼬科动物最有效,但狍子却避而远之,而商业引诱剂对红鹿最有效。通过功率分析和成本函数分析,我们能够显示出不同方法在成本效益方面的显著差异,有时甚至高达数万欧元,这有力地强调了选择是否使用引诱剂以及使用何种引诱剂的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing climate change threats to biodiversity and protected areas of Iran 评估气候变化对伊朗生物多样性和保护区的威胁
IF 2 3区 生物学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10344-024-01842-y
Ehsan Rahimi, Pinliang Dong, Faraham Ahmadzadeh, Chuleui Jung

Our research endeavors to evaluate the precise ramifications of climate change on Iran’s protected regions, utilizing species distribution modeling to anticipate the effects of climate change on 394 bird species, 157 plant species, 72 reptiles, and 20 mammals across two climate change scenarios: SSP245 and SSP585 in 2070. Subsequently, we employed binary species distribution maps to determine the extent of overlap between 125 protected areas, 27 wildlife refuges, and 15 national parks and species distribution, quantifying the proportion of these areas encompassed by their distribution. We found that under the SSP585 scenario, 174 bird species could experience a 319% expansion in suitable habitats, while 220 species could decline by 57.1%. Among plants, 16 species are projected to grow by 40.3%, whereas 141 species may decrease by 68.8%. Reptiles could experience an increase of 279.1% in 24 species, with a 66.6% decrease in 48 species, while mammals may witness a significant increase of 147.3% in 5 species, but a 71.8% decrease in 15 species. Also, under the SSP585 scenario, in national parks, bird coverage declines from 32.2% (current) to 19.9%, plants from 24.2 to 13.2%, reptiles from 18.4 to 6.8%, and mammals from 17.7 to 10%. In wildlife refuges, birds decrease from 9.7 to 5.7%, plants from 10.9 to 4.6%, reptiles from 12.9 to 2.5%, and mammals from 7.4 to 4.3%. In protected areas, birds drop from 29.3 to 20.4%, plants from 27.7 to 12.5%, reptiles from 18.7 to 9.7%, and mammals from 24 to 12.1%. The low overlap of species with national parks, wildlife refuges, and protected areas underscores the importance of re-evaluating and potentially expanding protected areas to ensure they encompass a broader range of habitats, particularly those that are underrepresented, to enhance the conservation of Iran’s biodiversity amidst the challenges posed by climate change.

我们的研究致力于评估气候变化对伊朗保护区的确切影响,利用物种分布模型预测气候变化在两种气候变化情景下对 394 种鸟类、157 种植物、72 种爬行动物和 20 种哺乳动物的影响:2070 年的 SSP245 和 SSP585。随后,我们利用二元物种分布图确定了 125 个保护区、27 个野生动物保护区和 15 个国家公园与物种分布的重叠程度,量化了其分布所涵盖的区域比例。我们发现,在 SSP585 情景下,174 种鸟类的适宜栖息地将扩大 319%,而 220 种鸟类的适宜栖息地将减少 57.1%。在植物中,16 个物种预计会增加 40.3%,而 141 个物种可能会减少 68.8%。爬行动物中,24 个物种可能增加 279.1%,48 个物种可能减少 66.6%;哺乳动物中,5 个物种可能大幅增加 147.3%,15 个物种可能减少 71.8%。此外,在 SSP585 情景下,国家公园中鸟类的覆盖率从 32.2%(当前)下降到 19.9%,植物从 24.2%下降到 13.2%,爬行动物从 18.4%下降到 6.8%,哺乳动物从 17.7%下降到 10%。在野生动物保护区,鸟类从 9.7% 减少到 5.7%,植物从 10.9% 减少到 4.6%,爬行动物从 12.9% 减少到 2.5%,哺乳动物从 7.4% 减少到 4.3%。在保护区,鸟类从 29.3% 降至 20.4%,植物从 27.7% 降至 12.5%,爬行动物从 18.7% 降至 9.7%,哺乳动物从 24% 降至 12.1%。国家公园、野生动物保护区和保护区的物种重叠率很低,这突出表明了重新评估和可能扩大保护区的重要性,以确保它们涵盖更广泛的栖息地,特别是那些代表性不足的栖息地,从而在气候变化带来的挑战中加强伊朗生物多样性的保护。
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European Journal of Wildlife Research
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