A Bayesian network analysis of the probabilistic relationships between metabolically healthy obesity and cardiovascular disease risk under new diagnostic criteria.

IF 1.4 4区医学 Q4 ENGINEERING, BIOMEDICAL Technology and Health Care Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI:10.3233/thc-241472

Shuo Chen,Peixian Wu,Weiqun Peng,Hongai Zhang

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Abstract

BACKGROUND The relationship between metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains debated. The critical point may be the lack of consensus on MHO's definition and diagnostic criteria. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to investigate the association of MHO status with arteriosclerosis-CVD (ASCVD) risk in Chinese under new diagnostic criteria. METHODS Participants aged 35-79 in the 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey cohort were included. The 10-year ASCVD risk was predicted by the prediction for ASCVD risk in China, and participants with a predicted risk of ⩾ 10% were classified into the high-risk group. The Bayesian network (BN) models were constructed to characterize the multivariable probabilistic connections between metabolically obesity phenotypes and ASCVD risk. RESULTS The 10-year ASCVD risk score and the proportion of individuals at ASCVD high risk were significantly different between metabolically obesity phenotypes (P< 0.001). BN reasoning results showed that MHO individuals were not significantly associated with a 10-year ASCVD risk. Among metabolically unhealthy individuals, the conditional probability of high ASCVD risk increased with the Body Mass Index (BMI), with the conditional probability of high ASCVD risk was 24.63% (95% CI: 22.81-26.55%), 32.97% (95% CI: 30.75-35.27%) and 40.2% (95% CI: 36.64-43.86%) for metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW), metabolically healthy overweight weight (MHOW), and metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUO) group, respectively. Subgroup analysis showed that MHO individuals were at increased risk of CVD compared with metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW) individuals only in females. CONCLUSION These results showed that there was no significant increase in ASCVD risk of MHO phenotype based on the new diagnostic criteria, suggesting that MHO is in a relatively healthy state.

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新诊断标准下代谢健康肥胖与心血管疾病风险之间概率关系的贝叶斯网络分析。

背景代谢性健康肥胖（MHO）与心血管疾病（CVD）风险之间的关系仍存在争议。本研究旨在根据新的诊断标准调查中国人的 MHO 状态与动脉硬化-心血管疾病（ASCVD）风险的关系。根据中国 ASCVD 风险预测法预测 10 年 ASCVD 风险，将预测风险⩾10% 的参与者归入高风险组。结果不同代谢肥胖表型之间的10年ASCVD风险评分和ASCVD高危人群比例存在显著差异（P< 0.001）。BN推理结果显示，MHO个体与10年ASCVD风险无明显关联。在代谢不健康个体中，ASCVD 高风险的条件概率随身体质量指数（BMI）的增加而增加，ASCVD 高风险的条件概率分别为 24.63% （95% CI：22.81-26.55%）、32.代谢不健康正常体重（MUNW）组、代谢健康超重体重（MHOW）组和代谢不健康肥胖（MUO）组的条件概率分别为 24.63% (95% CI: 22.81-26.55%)、32.97% (95% CI: 30.75-35.27%) 和 40.2% (95% CI: 36.64-43.86%)。亚组分析表明，与代谢健康的正常体重（MHNW）人群相比，MHO人群的心血管疾病风险仅在女性中有所增加。

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来源期刊

Technology and Health Care HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES-ENGINEERING, BIOMEDICAL

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

6.20%

发文量

282

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Technology and Health Care is intended to serve as a forum for the presentation of original articles and technical notes, observing rigorous scientific standards. Furthermore, upon invitation, reviews, tutorials, discussion papers and minisymposia are featured. The main focus of THC is related to the overlapping areas of engineering and medicine. The following types of contributions are considered: 1.Original articles: New concepts, procedures and devices associated with the use of technology in medical research and clinical practice are presented to a readership with a widespread background in engineering and/or medicine. In particular, the clinical benefit deriving from the application of engineering methods and devices in clinical medicine should be demonstrated. Typically, full length original contributions have a length of 4000 words, thereby taking duly into account figures and tables. 2.Technical Notes and Short Communications: Technical Notes relate to novel technical developments with relevance for clinical medicine. In Short Communications, clinical applications are shortly described. 3.Both Technical Notes and Short Communications typically have a length of 1500 words. Reviews and Tutorials (upon invitation only): Tutorial and educational articles for persons with a primarily medical background on principles of engineering with particular significance for biomedical applications and vice versa are presented. The Editorial Board is responsible for the selection of topics. 4.Minisymposia (upon invitation only): Under the leadership of a Special Editor, controversial or important issues relating to health care are highlighted and discussed by various authors. 5.Letters to the Editors: Discussions or short statements (not indexed).