The effects of landscape patterns on ecosystem services of urban agglomeration in semi-arid area under scenario modeling

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112610

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Abstract

Optimizing landscape patterns to promote ecosystem services (ESs) can alleviate human-land conflicts and contribute to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, delving deeper into the effects of landscape patterns on ESs under future scenarios remains challenging. This study combined various models, including the PLUS, InVEST, GeoDetector and MGWR models, to explore the effects of landscape patterns on ESs from current and future perspectives based on multi-scenario land use simulation and the evaluation of landscape patterns and ESs in the Ningxia Along the Yellow River Urban Agglomeration (YUA). The results show that (1) At the optimal scale of 2.7 km × 2.7 km, landscape types have become increasingly diverse and scattered, with habitat quality (HQ) and carbon sequestration (CS) declining and water yield (WY) increasing from 2005 to 2020. The change trends in landscape diversity, fragmentation under the cropland-ecological protection (CEP) and natural development (ND) scenarios during 2020–2035, are consistent with HQ trends from 2005 to 2020, while on the contrary inconsistent with WY. Notably, these trends under the CEP scenario change more slowly than those under the ND scenario. (2) Landscape indicators exert the strongest effects on HQ, followed by CS and WY. Landscape diversity emerges as the primary driver of ESs at the landscape level, while area indicators are predominant at the class level. (3) The spatial scale of landscape patterns’ influence on ESs indicates prioritization at both county and urban agglomeration scales for developing better landscape management measures. (4) The YUA should be divided into six types of regions for landscape management, and it’s necessary to formulate differentiated landscape management measures for each region. (5) This study reveals the spatial heterogeneity of the effects of landscape patterns on ESs, providing valuable partitioning management strategies for landscape planning to further optimize its patterns and thereby promote regional ESs.

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情景模拟下景观格局对半干旱地区城市群生态系统服务的影响

优化景观格局以促进生态系统服务（ESs）可缓解人地冲突，并有助于实现联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）。然而，深入研究未来情景下景观格局对生态系统服务的影响仍具有挑战性。本研究结合 PLUS、InVEST、GeoDetector 和 MGWR 等多种模型，基于多情景土地利用模拟和宁夏沿黄城市群（YUA）景观格局与 ESs 评价，从当前和未来角度探讨景观格局对 ESs 的影响。结果表明：(1) 在 2.7 km×2.7 km 的最佳尺度上，景观类型变得越来越多样和分散，从 2005 年到 2020 年，栖息地质量（HQ）和固碳量（CS）下降，产水量（WY）上升。2020-2035 年期间，在耕地生态保护（CEP）和自然发展（ND）情景下，景观多样性和破碎化的变化趋势与 2005-2020 年的 HQ 变化趋势一致，而与 WY 变化趋势不一致。值得注意的是，在 CEP 情景下，这些趋势的变化要比在 ND 情景下慢。(2) 景观指标对 HQ 的影响最大，其次是 CS 和 WY。景观多样性是景观水平 ES 的主要驱动因素，而面积指标则是类水平 ES 的主要驱动因素。(3) 景观格局对环境质量影响的空间尺度表明，应优先考虑县级和城市群尺度，以制定更好的景观管理措施。(4) 豫南地区应划分为六类区域进行景观管理，并针对不同区域制定差异化的景观管理措施。(5）本研究揭示了景观格局对环境系统影响的空间异质性，为景观规划提供了有价值的分区管理策略，以进一步优化景观格局，从而促进区域环境系统的发展。

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来源期刊

Ecological Indicators 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

11.80

自引率

8.70%

发文量

1163

审稿时长

78 days

期刊介绍： The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published. • All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices. • New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use. • Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources. • Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators. • Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs. • How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes. • Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators. • Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.